Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 10/02

Photo Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Locks

NFL (1 Unit) 2-Team Moneyline Parlay (-105)

Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys -160: 12:00 PM CT on FOX

Of course I’m going to back my Cowboys here to continue beating up on the bad teams of the NFC East. With the undefeated Cooper Rush continuing to guide this offense that’s returning to health, I’m confident his streak stays intact today. My sense is this number hasn’t really moved because of that skepticism around Rush’s ability to keep this up, and with it sitting right on three I’d rather just ask them to win here.

Let’s face it, Carson Wentz is going to do Carson Wentz things against a tough Dallas defense. That unit knows it has to pick the team up during Dak Prescott’s absence, and has done an excellent job against much better offenses than Washington brings. At home in a key divisional game, of which Dallas has won seven straight, I see them getting the job done.

New England Patriots @ Green Bay Packers -425: 3:25 PM CT on CBS

This is the widest spread on the board this week, and how can it not look like anything but a slam dunk? The NFL equivalents of a free space in bingo sometimes scare me because things are never easy in this league, but there’s just no world in which I see the Packers losing here. Mac Jones was never the kind of quarterback who would take his team into Lambeau and beat Aaron Rodgers, and Brian Hoyer is no Mac Jones.

A backup quarterback for New England, their top receiver out, and a defense that was shredded by the only strong offense it has faced, is just not the recipe for pulling a double-digit upset. The Packers are certainly weak against the run, but they’ll be able to stack the box today and alleviate any concerns there. They’ll also be able to use their strong run game to shred a Pats defense having similar issues. I’d never lay this juice on its own, but tying it into this parlay makes sense for just getting the win.

Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit): Washington Commanders Team Total Under 19.5

Like I said, Wentz is going to do things in this game to stymie his team’s production. The biggest mismatch on the field is Washington allowing the most sacks in the league, and Dallas getting the most sacks in the league. That is absolutely a recipe for holding a team below a total which is inexplicably higher than Dallas is allowing on average.

The Cowboys held Tom Brady with healthy receivers under this total. They held Joe Burrow and that offense under this total. Explain how Wentz is going to outperform those offenses today – explain it to me like I’m in kindergarten.

Extra Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): New England Patriots Team Total Under 14

If Hoyer leads this milquetoast New England offense to more than two touchdowns in this game, I’ll still sleep fine tonight knowing it was the right bet all along. That’s all I have to say on the matter.

 

NFL (0.5 Unit) Cleveland Browns/Atlanta Falcons Over 47 (-110): 12:00 PM CT on CBS

There are only three teams in the NFL that have hit the over in all of their games, and two of them square off here. While trends don’t mean everything, I also can’t ignore just how prone to giving up points this Falcons team is – they’re simply built for overs. Atlanta has yet to hold an opponent under 23 points, and none of those teams are anything especially scary on offense.

For Cleveland, this should be an opportunity to continue rolling on offense, especially with Nick Chubb in a homecoming role here. The best rushing offense in football should continue piling up the yardage and points. But Myles Garrett and other key defensive pieces are set to miss this game for Cleveland. That should allow the Falcons to continue scoring like they have all season, at the very least contributing in garbage time. A lot of smart money has hit the over in this one, and I’m on board as well.

NFL (0.75 Unit) Tampa Bay Buccaneers/Kansas City Chiefs Over 46 (-110): 7:20 PM CT on NBC

Throughout the week I’ve had a hard time deciding what exactly I wanted to do with this game but now that there’s a clear indication that the weather won’t be an issue anymore after Hurricane Ian, I’m comfortable taking the over. Forty-six seems low for two of the best quarterbacks in football and if it wasn’t for emotions riding high in Tampa, I’d also take the Chiefs. I expect this game to get into the 50’s or higher so let’s keep it simple and cap our weekend with a win.

Degenerates

NFL Baltimore Ravens/Buffalo Bills Over 51 (-110): 12 PM CT on CBS

This is a very interesting matchup between two of the best offenses in football but also two of the better defenses. It just wouldn’t be fun to watch Lamar Jackson against Josh Allen without having a small play on the over. These two teams are averaging about 63 combined points on offense and I see them chasing each other’s wild pace throughout the day, especially after Josh Allen’s frustrating performance a week ago. I have serious concerns about the weather here so that’s why it’s a degenerate but I’m still going to dabble with the over.

 

Tiny Nick is 876-732 ATS (+77.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks. 

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Photo Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

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