Locks
NFL (0.5 Unit) New York Jets @ Minnesota Vikings -3 (-110): 12 PM CT on CBS
The Minnesota Vikings are undefeated this season when favorited, so I’ll take my chances with a small spread of 3. The Jets defense is for real, but I haven’t seen enough from this Mike White-led Jets offense to believe they can keep up with the Vikings, especially at US Bank Stadium. Let’s keep it simple here and roll with Kirk Cousins and the Vikes.
NFL (.75 Units) Tennessee Titans +4.5 @ Philadelphia Eagles (-110): 12 PM CT on Fox
As a fan of the Dallas Cowboys, I’ve refused to believe the Eagles are as good as they seem, and this is the first time I’m going to act on it. The Eagles’ run defense has been subpar as of late, and Derrick Henry is due for a monster game. Not to mention the Titans are 8-3 ATS this season. As long as Ryan Tannehill can keep the chains moving, the Titans should be able to keep it close, if not outright win in Philly.
Bonus Bet (0.25 Units) Over 44.5 (-110):
Eagles home games are 10-1 to the over in their last 11, and with two offenses that are capable of putting up a big number, I’m going to roll with that trend.
NFL (1 Unit) Kansas City Chiefs -2 @ Cincinnati Bengals (-110): 3:25 PM CT on CBS
Patrick Mahomes is 17-5-1 ATS as a favorite of less than a FG or as a dog in his career. I respect Joe Burrow a lot but so does Vegas, and that’s why this number is so low. It’s too low for me not to take advantage of, though, and this might actually be my top play of the day. The over of 52.5 is intriguing as well, but I’m going to lay off of it and keep it simple with the Chiefs.
NFL (0.75 Units) Miami Dolphins +4.5 @ San Francisco 49ers (-110): 3:05 PM CT on CBS
Before I get into why I like the Dolphins this week I do have to point out a horrifying statistic. The 49ers have not allowed a single point in their last 4 second halves outscoring their opponents 57-0 during that stretch. Despite that ridiculous stat the Dolphins aren’t the New Orleans Saints or even the Arizona Cardinals, they’re an offensive juggernaut led by the three headed monster of Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle.
4.5 is simply too many points for an offense led by Jimmy G to cover when I honestly think this game could be a moneyline toss-up. The 49ers 13 point showing against the Saints last week is not going to get it done this week. Tua is also 9-4-1 ATS as an underdog in career, so although the 49ers are a team I plan on riding in the future, the Dolphins are the play for me here.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 965-806 ATS (+88.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
