Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) Chicago Bulls/Charlotte Hornets Over 236 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN
Somebody broke the Charlotte Hornets and their usual high-scoring offense, but the key to fixing it might be a visit from the Bulls. If they play anything like their previous 252-point meeting, this game should cruise over as well.
The Hornets have hit the under in 5 straight games, something that didn’t seem possible for a team that had a 284-point game just 2 weeks ago. But opponent matters and Charlotte has not faced many teams with Chicago’s style in that stretch. That same two-week stretch has seen the Bulls post some monster scoring totals, hitting the over in 7 straight with those games averaging 243.1 points. Their shorthanded roster doesn’t seem to have the energy for defense, and tonight face the team that’s 2nd in pace.
Combining Charlotte’s up-tempo style with Chicago’s shooting accuracy should make for plenty of scoring in this one. It’s also a square bettor’s paradise out there right now with favorites and overs crushing in the NBA, so grab this over for a national TV game.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Wake Forest/NC St Over 151 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ACC Network
A truly awful NC State defense should get run over again tonight as they host one of the best offenses in the conference. I see that leading to plenty of points as has been the case in similar games for the Wolfpack.
The ACC as a conference is definitely down this year, but there are a few functional offenses left and they’ve all taken advantage of this NC State defense. The Wolfpack are down to 331st in defensive rating, and their conference games against those quality offensive teams have averaged 170 points. Wake Forest is actually the 11th-best shooting team in the country, so they should be able to take advantage of the Wolfpack defense that’s 307th in effective field goal defense.
The Demon Deacons also tend to get into higher-scoring games against the other good offenses, averaging 152.1 points in games against the same slate I referenced above. The Deacs have their own defensive liabilities on the road, so I see both teams filling it up tonight to hit this over.
NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) Missouri St/Drake Over 142 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+
I’m looking for some mean reversion to hit the outside shooting for both these teams, and if it does we should be in for a game that easily clears this total.
Neither Missouri State nor Drake could buy one from beyond the arc in their respective last games, with both squads shooting just 19% from deep. That’s fairly shocking for MO-St. in particular who is the 19th-best 3-point shooting team in the whole country. They should be able to find the range against a Drake team that’s 198th in 3-point percentage defense.
Outside shooting is a key for how these teams like to play, and efficiency from the field is necessary since both are fairly slow-paced. But they both have the capability to get into high-scoring games as their past 12 combined games are 9-3 to the over. I’ll count on the excellent shooters for both teams to bounce back and drain enough shots to get this over the total.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Texas Tech -3 @ Oklahoma (-110): 8:00 PM CT on ESPNU
New Oklahoma coach Porter Moser was holding this Sooners team together early in the season with duct tape and a prayer, but it’s come apart in Big 12 play and doesn’t get any easier tonight.
Texas Tech hasn’t been great in their Big 12 road games, although they did go into Baylor and come out with a huge win. But there is just too much of a talent disparity between these teams right now, and it’s showing in the results on the floor. The Red Raiders enter this game as one of the hottest ATS teams in the country on a 9-1 run, while Oklahoma has only covered 2 of their past 8 games.
Tech is a little banged up in this game, potentially missing stars Terrance Shannon Jr. and Adonis Arms tonight. I think the short opening number reflects that, and the movement towards the Red Raiders gives me confidence that they’ll be healthy enough to get this win and cover.
Degenerates
NBA Minnesota Timberwolves/Sacramento Kings Over 235 (-110): 9:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North
These doubleheader games can be strange and unpredictable, especially when the first matchup was a blowout like we saw last night. But what I also saw last night was a Sacramento team that did not look like it wanted to be there, and the players could not guard their shadow. If the Wolves are still intent on running it up against bad teams, then we’re likely to see another high-scoring game tonight.
The Sacramento defense was so bad last night that it allowed the Wolves to shoot 22 for 44 from deep and rack up 29 fast-break points. I don’t see why the Kings would suddenly decide to put in any effort defensively, especially on no rest, but again these back-to-backs can be strange. It’s easy to fall victim to the last thing you saw in sports betting which was 248 total points, but my lean here would still be over given the awful Kings defense and hot Wolves offense.
Tiny Nick is 578-461 ATS (+79 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
