Locks
NBA (1 Unit) Miami Heat/Brooklyn Nets Over 222 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on YES
I’ve had this game circled for a couple days now, anticipating the return of Kevin Durant and absolutely loving a key trend for Miami.
Since Durant was injured almost 7 weeks ago, the Brooklyn offense has only averaged 102.9 PPG at home where Kyrie Irving also doesn’t play. Those struggles have fed into their overall metrics and is artificially deflating this total. Despite all the injuries and roster chaos, the Nets are still 10th in shooting and 15th in offensive rating, so re-adding perhaps the best scorer on the planet makes them very capable of putting up plenty of points tonight.
This also sets up perfectly as an over from a trends perspective as the Heat are the 2nd-best over team in the league. But digging a little deeper, we find that Miami on a back-to-back is 9-1 to the over (with a +12.3 average margin to the total), and when they’re at a rest disadvantage their games are 9-0 to the over (+13.4 average margin). With Miami having played a high-possessions game in Milwaukee last night, this sets up perfectly to continue that trend. If the Heat are going to take a night off from defense here, KD and the Nets are going to take advantage to push this game over the total.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Sacramento Kings/San Antonio Spurs Over 240 (-110): 7:30 PM CT on Bally Sports SW
The Spurs have returned home from their annual rodeo road trip, and with a tired Sacramento team up first, I see them continuing their high-scoring home games.
San Antonio has posted the best percentage of overs in the NBA at home, with the 2nd-best plus/minus to the total. The Spurs kept up some of their high-scoring ways on that road trip, but it’s just different for them at home where they score 3.2 more PPG and allow 1.3 more. They’re actually allowing the 2nd-most points at home in the NBA, and tonight welcome the team allowing the 2nd-most points on the road.
Sacramento is still not playing much defense, and just gave up 125 points in New Orleans last night. They’re particularly bad at defending the interior, which is where San Antonio prefers to attack offensively, so there should be plenty of easy buckets in this one. The previous meetings this season averaged 244 points, with the one in San Antonio hitting 253 points. This total is on the rise for good reason, so I’m on the over in what should be another shootout.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) UIC @ Fort Wayne -6 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+
Fort Wayne has quickly become my new favorite team in college basketball, and I see big things for them in the Horizon tournament starting tonight.
The Mastodons have won 9 straight, covering 8 of those, with a win over UIC included. Fort Wayne was a 5-point favorite in that 7-point home win, so this number would seem fair from that standpoint. But it’s a little misleading since Fort Wayne came out extremely flat for that game, finding themselves down 11 early in an obvious look-ahead spot. I expect the Mastodons to be much more focused in this one given the stakes, and control it from start to finish.
They should be able to once again rely on what’s carried them on their winning streak: 3-point shooting. Thanks to extremely hot shooting from beyond the arc the past month, the Mastodons are now the 26th-best 3-point shooting team in the country. They also attempt the 14th-most from deep and face a UIC team that’s 328th in 3-point percentage defense. Fort Wayne also benefits here from the Horizon tournament utilizing campus games, as they’ve won 7 straight home games by an average 12.4 point margin. This should be another easy home win for them so lay the points.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Lipscomb @ Liberty 1st Half -6.5 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+
Lipscomb is a second-half team, period. The Bison have such a horrific defense – down at 333rd in efficiency – that they dig themselves into big holes and have to scramble late. They also can’t guard on the perimeter, ranking 346th in 3-point percentage defense. That’s a recipe for getting buried early by a Liberty team who takes the 8th-most threes in the country, makes them at the 4th-best percentage, and shot 17 for 35 from deep in the first meeting.
I’ve just seen this script play out too many times for Lipscomb this season, including their past 3 road games where they’ve faced an average 13.7 point halftime deficit. Even the 4 home games added into that stretch have seen the Bison hold just 1 halftime lead.
While Liberty has stumbled a couple times down the stretch this season, they know how to beat Lipscomb. The previous matchup saw the Flames hold a 15-point lead at the break before Lipscomb rallied somewhat in the second half. The full game number is a little too big for me given Lipscomb’s ability to get in the back door, but a fired-up Flames team should be able to score at will here and take a big lead at half.
NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) UC Davis @ Long Beach St -5.5 (-110): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN+
I’m really just not understanding this line. Sure, Long Beach has dropped 2 of 3 after their 11-game winning streak, so that could be holding their value down. But those were road games against tough teams, and now they’re back home where they’ve been dominant. The Beach lost their conference home opener, but they are 7-0 straight up and ATS in the Walter Pyramid since then. Every one of those wins has come by at least the margin of tonight’s spread, and were an 11-point victory on average.
UC Davis has had an extremely hectic season marred by 8 cancelations of conference games, and it’s been tough to get a read on them as a result. But what they definitely don’t have is the firepower to stay with LBSU, a team that has an extra gear nobody else in the Big West does. The Aggies couldn’t keep up when Long Beach turned it on in the first meeting, and I don’t see it happening here on the road, so I’ll back The Beach.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball American +12 @ Navy (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+
The Patriot League has been infuriating to handicap this season, but their conference tournament always seems to bring tight games. That makes this number just too big in my opinion, especially considering American has put up a good fight against Navy this season. The Eagles have two losses to the Midshipmen, but they’ve come by a total of 11 points including a 47-45 game the last time they met in Annapolis.
Navy has been one of the more frustrating teams after a hot ATS start to the season, and they finished just 4-8 ATS in home games. This game will also be played at a crawl, with American 312th and Navy 335th in pace which creates value on a double-digit underdog. I see this being too many points in a conference tournament scenario, and I’ll back the dog here.
Tiny Nick is 625-504 ATS (+80.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
