Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) Chicago Bulls @ Philadelphia 76ers -7 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on NBCS-PH
I’ll keep mentioning it until the Bulls prove me wrong, but Chicago just isn’t very good against top-tier competition. They’ve shown it in their four consecutive losses, all to teams currently in the playoffs, and all games where they failed to cover the spread as short underdogs. And when this team is on the road as an underdog, they’re just 3-12 straight up and 5-10 against the number.
Philadelphia has a great chance to extend those woes for the Bulls, just as they have all season. The Sixers are looking to sweep the season series tonight, having already gone 3-0 both straight up and ATS against Chicago. And those games all happened in a world where James Harden was still in Brooklyn, so the Bulls might really be in trouble tonight. Joel Embiid should have a monster game against the weak frontcourt of Chicago that might also be without Nikola Vucevic tonight. This should be another easy win for the new Philly dynamic duo, so I’m laying the points.
NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) Louisiana vs. Georgia St. -3 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN2
The price to back Georgia State keeps dropping, so I’ll keep buying. This should be another hard-fought and low-scoring Sun Belt tournament game, but it’s one where I think Georgia State can handle this spread comfortably.
It’s a good matchup for the Panthers here, as their excellent defense can create plenty of turnovers against a Louisiana team that’s 344th in taking care of the basketball. The Ragin’ Cajuns have gotten to this tournament final by bullying teams inside, but that’s not an area where they have an advantage against Georgia State. The Panthers frontcourt duo of Eliel Nsoseme and Jalen Thomas can’t be pushed around, and that will put more focus on the sloppy Cajuns guards.
Georgia State already swept the season series, covering the number in both meetings with the Cajuns as well. Historically, teams that sweep a season series are usually a solid ATS bet in the conference tournament. They’re just the better team, with advantages across the board and focused on righting their season. I see the Panthers closing this one out and love the short number here.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Northern Kentucky vs. Fort Wayne +2 (-110): 8:30 PM CT on ESPN2
This is a meeting of red-hot teams. Both are on 8-2 ATS runs, Northern Kentucky has won 13 of their past 15 games, and Fort Wayne is still rolling on a 10-game winning streak. But I have to back the Mastodons here who have treated me so well this season. Fort Wayne just has the look and feel of an NCAA tournament darling, and I see them getting one step closer here.
It’s March, it’s tournament basketball, and that means excellent backcourts count for a lot more. Fort Wayne has the deepest and most talented guard rotation in the Horizon, and it will be the difference-maker here. That excellent unit has the shot-making ability Northern Kentucky lacks, and when the Mastodons get their perimeter shots to drop, the floodgates open.
The Norse aren’t particularly good at defending the three either, so if Fort Wayne can avoid getting dominated inside, they’ll be able to pull away in this one. I was shocked to see them as an underdog, and love the value that creates on a team that seems destined to be playing next week.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball South Dakota vs. South Dakota St. -5 First Half (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+
South Dakota State is one of the best teams in the country at a lot of things, such as being the best shooting team and tops in offensive rating. But they also are extremely good at getting out in front of teams early. Their average 8.5 point halftime lead ranks 6th in the country, and clearly outshines South Dakota who is 152nd in average first half margin. It should be no surprise then that the Jackrabbits led at the break by 19 and 5 points in their regular season meetings with the Coyotes.
The opening round game for SDSU saw them uncharacteristically sluggish, not able to pull away from a bad Omaha team. I see that being a wake-up call for this in-state rivalry matchup, especially with them having a day off while the Coyotes played last night. The full-game number is rapidly being bet up towards double digits, so not wanting to lay that in a tournament setting has me backing SDSU early here.
Tiny Nick is 632-513 ATS (+78.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
