Locks
NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) UNLV +1 vs. Wyoming (-110): 4:30 PM CT on CBSSN
This is a home game for UNLV, as the Thomas and Mack Center on their campus is the site of the Mountain West conference tournament. That’s really bad news for Wyoming, as the Cowboys have lost 13 straight games to UNLV when they play in Las Vegas. That’s not something I see changing today, as the home-court advantage is just one reason UNLV deserves to be favored.
Wyoming’s woes in Vegas were extended just last week, with the Runnin’ Rebels taking down a fully healthy Cowboys team. Now their star player Hunter Maldonado is dealing with an injury, and this Wyoming offense really struggles when he isn’t able to contribute at the normal level. That should also make things easier for UNLV guard Bryce Hamilton, the conference’s leading scorer, who has been bothered by Maldonado’s length in the past. Wyoming should also be safely in the NCAA tournament, so I’m counting on a hungrier home team to continue their run of dominance here.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) North Texas -10.5 vs. Rice (-110): 5:30 PM CT on STADIUM
Yes, it’s a tournament environment and yes, laying double digits can be challenging. But this is such an utter mismatch that I have to back North Texas, even at a longer number.
Rice is not a terrible team by any means, knocking off a couple of the better C-USA teams at home this season. But the Owls are extremely reliant on 3-point shooting and face a UNT defense that’s 7th-best at defending the three, in a venue notorious for difficult shooting sightlines.
North Texas has shut them down in both meetings this season, only allowing Rice to score 44 and 43 points in blowout victories. The Owls have no answer inside for Thomas Bell, which will allow the Mean Green to rack up easy buckets while Rice struggles from outside. This is also a rested and motivated North Texas squad that has bullied teams like Rice all season, so I see another blowout here.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) San Diego St. -5.5 vs. Fresno St. (-110): 10:30 PM CT on CBSSN
I feel a little bad for Fresno State and their recent schedule. Over the past 10 days, the Bulldogs have gone from Fresno to San Diego, to Laramie, to Las Vegas, and played 4 overtime periods in 3 games. That’s pretty brutal, and after going to overtime against a putrid San Jose State team last night they could be in real trouble here against the rested Aztecs.
San Diego State is also just a tough matchup for Fresno. They have the length inside to really bother Orlando Robinson and forced the Bulldogs star into poor performances in both meetings this season. While one of those meetings required double overtime for SDSU to pull out the win, they were in a serious flat spot in that game. Now it’s Fresno in the tough spot, with a mountain of disadvantages, and I see the Aztecs continuing their history of excellence in this tournament by winning easily here.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball Portland State/Southern Utah Over 146 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN+
These teams love to get up and down the floor, with Portland State ranking 28th and Southern Utah 49th in pace. That has created plenty of high-scoring games for both teams, with them combining for a 25-15 record over this total in their conference games. Included in that are the two regular-season meetings, both relatively close games that averaged 158 regulation points.
I’m expecting this to be a fairly close game too, as the point spread indicates, where the typical tournament setting creates fouls and free throws at the end. Portland State also just played a grind of a game last night, so an up-tempo style from both teams should take an extra toll on defense here. These teams just know how to score on each other, so this total is too low for how I see this game playing out.
Tiny Nick is 637-517 ATS (+78.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
