Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves -7 @ Orlando Magic (-110): 6:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North
A major factor in the 14-4 straight-up record – and corresponding rise in the standings – for Minnesota has been their ability to take care of business against bad teams. The Wolves are 9-1 straight up and 7-1-2 ATS against their last 10 sub-.500 opponents, and get another opportunity tonight.
While they’ve managed some wins recently against other bad teams, the Orlando Magic have played more like the Tragic for a majority of the season. And when they face off against opponents who’ve shown no hesitation to blow out bad teams, they tend to get blown out. That’s especially true at home, where the Magic are just 7-19 ATS as an underdog.
Orlando’s last 8 games against non-play-in teams have seen the Magic go 0-8 straight up and 2-6 ATS, losing by an average 18.4 point margin. This is a team destined to get blown out most nights, so I see a hot Wolves team doing exactly that.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Miami/Duke Over 148 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN
It’s not for a lack of talent but a lack of effort that both these teams have been struggling on defense, especially lately. It was impossible to miss Duke’s defensive collapse against North Carolina last Saturday, created by their inability to defend dribble penetration. The Blue Devils also had their hands full against Syracuse yesterday, allowing the Orange to shoot 42% from deep, so this team is just struggling overall on the defensive end.
Miami’s defense has been considerably worse this season, ranking 249th in defensive efficiency. They struggled to slow down a Boston College team yesterday that’s 198th in offense, and today get a Duke team that’s the 5th-most efficient offense in the country. But the Hurricanes have excellent shooting ability that can compensate and should find easy shots against the slumping Duke defense.
Both teams are on no rest after tough games yesterday, so defensive legs will be weakened. And I also see a closer game here, creating fouls and free throws late. So with two high-powered offenses involved, I see this game getting over the total.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) TCU +8.5 vs. Kansas (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN2
I’ve had the chance to watch plenty of Kansas this season, and every time I come away unimpressed. I just can’t point to anything this team excels at, and that gives me the impression that they’re a little overrated. It shows in their record as a favorite this season, just 15-16 ATS, but the brand-name recognition makes them a public team with an inflated number here.
That’s especially true against a TCU squad they lost to by 10, and then only beat by 4 in a home revenge spot just last week. I can point to impressive things about this TCU team, such as their excellent rebounding and interior presence in Eddie Lampkin who simply won’t be pushed around. Lampkin and that rebounding prowess played a big role in the regular season, when the Horned Frogs outrebounded Kansas in both meetings.
The thin Jayhawks frontcourt could cause problems for them again with TCU feeling it after a big comeback yesterday, and unafraid of Kansas from the regular season. There’s a reason why TCU is 11-4-1 ATS when catching points, and in a tournament environment I’ll take those points with a feisty dog here.
NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) Quinnipiac vs. St. Peter’s -6.5 (-110): 7:30 PM CT on ESPN News
The door is wide open for this St. Peter’s team, as Iona’s shocking exit from the MAAC tournament leaves a fairly easy path to the title. The Peacocks are peaking too, just in time to take advantage against a Quinnipiac team they’ve already handled easily this season. St. Peter’s won both regular season matchups by more than tonight’s spread, and have trended in a complete opposite direction since they last saw each other.
The Bobcats finished the regular season with 7 losses in 8 games, only now turning it around in the MAAC tournament behind some ridiculously hot 3-point shooting. That should end here against a Peacocks squad that’s 25th nationally in defending the three, and were able to control the Bobcats from outside in the regular season. St. Peter’s has just been rolling, on a 5-0 straight-up and ATS run where they’ve won by an average 16.8 point margin. This is a big number for a tournament game, but I’ll lay it given the matchup and history between these teams.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball Ohio vs. Kent State +1 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on CBSSN
I’ve had a rule all season for Ohio that says do not bet on the Bobcats when they face a team above them in the MAC standings. Recently that rule has expanded to just not betting on the Bobcats at all, as 4 losses in their final 5 regular season games were significant cause for concern. And of course one of those losses came to this Kent State squad in blowout fashion.
The Golden Flashes are easily the hottest team still playing right now, with 13 straight wins and a 10-1-2 ATS record in that stretch. This team is rapidly improving defensively, brimming with confidence, and have an NCAA tournament bid in their sights. There was an overnight move through zero here that has me concerned so check for injury news, but absent that, I have to ride the hot team here.
Tiny Nick is 639-518 ATS (+79.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
