Locks
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Indiana -4 vs. Wyoming (-110): 8:00 PM CT on TRUTV
I’ll give it one game before I start heavily fading Indiana off their impressive Big 10 tournament run. Indiana is getting healthy at the right time though, and those returning pieces will play a big role in stopping what Wyoming wants to do. The availability of Race Thompson and Jordan Geronimo will be key in slowing Wyoming’s Hunter Maldonado and his point-guard post-ups. The Cowboys want to bully teams inside, but those big and athletic wings combined with Trayce Jackson-Davis will limit that ability.
Wyoming struggled against teams who could match their size and athleticism this season, particularly power conference talent like Arizona and Stanford. The size and physicality of Big 10 basketball will be an unenjoyable taste of their own medicine. The hot Hoosiers are attracting a lot of betting attention here from the smart money, and I think it’s warranted as Indiana’s natural strengths will get them the win and cover.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Alcorn St./Texas A&M Over 140 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN2
The Champ Week darling who didn’t go dancing is always tough to handicap from an emotional and motivational angle. So Texas A&M could be in a flat spot here after getting rejected by the committee, or looking to continue their newfound success from the SEC tournament.
I’m staying away from the side in this game because I think either situation for the Aggies creates a lot of points here. A motivated A&M team can easily continue their success against an Alcorn defense that allowed 82.8 PPG to power conference teams in their early-season slate. A disappointed and/or exhausted Aggies squad will find themselves giving up easy buckets to an Alcorn team that can attack the rim with their excellent athleticism.
But overall, this Texas A&M team has been so much better without Marcus Williams, particularly on offense. Whether they’re in an unexpected dogfight with the Braves or running up the score on them, I see plenty of points in this NIT opener.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Santa Clara +3.5 @ Washington St. (-110): 10:00 PM CT on ESPNU
Washington State is an excellent example of a team the analytics simply got wrong, with the Cougars crashing back to earth a month ago after getting overinflated on a soft schedule. Well, it’s happened again, as Wazzu made themselves look better than they are with a 5-2 finish to the season where all of the wins came against struggling teams.
I really didn’t think they deserved a seed this high in the NIT, and I’m also not buying them as a favorite in this matchup. In fact, WSU is a great team to fade in this spot, just 7-11 ATS as a home favorite. Plus, Santa Clara is the kind of team Wazzu struggled against all season, one that can push pace and shoot at a high percentage. The Broncos finally played to their potential down the stretch, and an offense that’s clicking can pull away from a slow and inefficient Cougars counterpart.
While it appears Mouhamed Gueye will be available for the Cougars tonight, him not being fully healthy creates a massive opportunity for Josip Vrankic inside. I also have more faith in the Broncos backcourt, and in a tournament road game, I’ll take that advantage along with the points any day.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 645-524 ATS (+77.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
