Locks
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Longwood/Tennessee Over 132.5 (-110): 1:45 PM CT on CBS
Despite their name, Longwood really doesn’t have much length and will give up a lot of easy buckets to Tennessee here. The Lancers have gotten into plenty of high-scoring games this season as a result of a high offensive rating and the 16th-best percentage from long range. They played two power conference teams in the non-conference slate, losing 106-73 to Iowa and 91-83 to a bad Georgetown team, so Tennessee should be able to score on them at will.
When the Volunteers met up with mid and low-major schools in their non-conference schedule, they scored 87 PPG and those games went 4-2 over this total. Tennessee can score at will as I mentioned, and come into this game in great form off an SEC tournament title. This feels like it could be a blowout by the Vols, with mismatches all over the court, but Longwood can put up points themselves, so I expect this game to get over a fairly low total.
NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Iowa Team Total Over 80.5 (-110): 2:10 PM CT on TruTV
I’m probably buying a little too high on Iowa here after their impressive run to the Big 10 tournament title. But I’m not asking them to cover double digits against a red-hot Richmond team that never goes away, just exploit their poor defense. The Spiders finished the season 187th in defensive rating, finishing 9th defensively in their conference that’s not known for offensive juggernauts.
That’s going to be a problem against an Iowa offense that’s 2nd in efficiency and 4th in overall scoring. But as I mentioned, Richmond just refuses to go away and stays in games long past what you’d expect. That ability to hang around will push Iowa to score more, and if it’s at all close late, the desperation fouling will add points via strong free-throw shooting by the Hawkeyes. In their non-conference slate, Iowa averaged 93.7 PPG and was 9-1 over this team total. A reprieve from the grind of Big 10 basketball should allow this offense to perform at those levels again.
NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Vermont/Arkansas Over 139 (-110): 8:20 PM CT on TNT
Vermont is an offensive efficiency monster, playing at the country’s 33rd slowest pace but still scoring 75 PPG because they shoot it at the 5th-best percentage in the country. They’re also one of the best shot quality metrics teams, with excellent shot-making ability on what are considered high-quality attempts.
Arkansas is going to speed them up with their athleticism and pace, ranking 28th in possessions per game, and when you speed up an efficiency monster you get points. I don’t think Vermont can stop Arkansas from getting easy buckets either so this should be up and down the court. There’s also an extremely short spread in this game for a 13-vs-4 matchup, so we could see a tight game and late foul-fest that pads the scoring even more.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball New Mexico St. Moneyline vs. UConn (+240): 5:50 PM CT on TNT
I’ll also be grabbing the points in this one, taking +7 with New Mexico State so if that’s more your speed I understand. But the Aggies are very live to win this one straight up and I want that juicy return on the moneyline. It’s a 12-vs-5 game, and I’ll be playing the moneyline across the board with 12 seeds since at least one has pulled an upset in 31 of the last 36 NCAA tournaments.
But I also really like the matchup here for NMSU, especially against a UConn team that comes in a little overvalued. The Huskies have a tendency to short-circuit offensively, especially against teams like NMSU who can pressure the ball with Sir’Jabari Rice and Teddy Allen. Despite some uncharacteristic struggles late, the Aggies are much better than they’re getting credit for. This team won at Washington State and beat Davidson on a neutral court, so I like their chances to pull the upset against an inconsistent Huskies squad.
Tiny Nick is 648-528 ATS (+77.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
