Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) LA Clippers/Minnesota Timberwolves First Half Over 112.5 (-110): 8:30 PM CT on TNT
I’m inclined to take the full game under tonight of 230.5, so if you’re not into halftime totals, I’d recommend putting your money there. That’s because this is a win-and-advance situation, which should see these teams slow the pace and lock down defensively later in the game. But I’m still liking this first half over, which has been pushed down by the full-game total dropping. And at less than half of the full-game number in a game I see slowing down late, there’s a lot of natural value here.
I don’t see these teams deviating too much from who they are early on, and that should create plenty of scoring. That’s particularly true of the Wolves, whose defense has fallen apart down the stretch, but who have the league’s top offensive efficiency in the 2022 calendar year. They’re also 3rd in first-half scoring, so I’m betting they turn that offense loose early on to try to grab a solid lead. But the Clippers are no slouch offensively and should have no trouble keeping pace.
Minnesota had some weak offensive outputs against the Clippers this season, but 3 of the meetings were in November and this is a much different team now. I see that hot offense leading to plenty of scoring early before the game gets tight down the stretch.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Anthony Edwards Over 22.5 Points (-110)
It’s been feast or famine quite often this season with Ant Man, but I’m anticipating a solid performance from him here. While it’s his first taste of the postseason, Edwards has had no trouble putting up big games against the Clippers this season with 17, 21, 28, and 28 point efforts. The Clippers also struggle more against centers, so I see them focusing help on Karl-Anthony Towns which leaves opportunities for Edwards. He’s also shooting 53% in the past 6 games and is less than a week removed from his career-high in points, so the current form tells me to back Ant tonight.
Extra Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Reggie Jackson Over 2.5 Made Threes (+135)
If Jackson falls short of this, it won’t be from a lack of trying. The LA point guard attempts 6.8 shots from deep per game, and put up 7.5 of them per game against the Wolves this season. Minnesota is not to be mistaken for a team with a good 3-point defense either, ranking 26th in opponent threes both made and attempted. Jackson drained 7 from downtown in the season’s first meeting, so with a nice plus-juice return here, I’ll look for him to knock down enough of the plentiful looks he’ll get tonight.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 675-549 ATS (+80.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
