Locks
NBA (1 Unit) Atlanta Hawks -2 @ Cleveland Cavaliers (-110): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN
Interestingly enough, this line opened with the Cavaliers laying a point or two. But I agree with the market move to Atlanta being favored here because I think everyone is seeing the same thing. The patchwork lineups resulting from Cleveland’s bad injury luck have been no match for Atlanta this season, especially when the Hawks have any semblance of roster continuity.
A 3-1 straight up and ATS record for the Hawks against Cleveland this season has been the result, including 3 straight once the injury bug started biting the Cavs. That’s also led to the last 3 meetings seeing Atlanta average 125.3 PPG against one of the better defenses in the NBA, and I think the difference will be on the offensive end again tonight. Jarrett Allen is supposed to give it a go tonight in this all-or-nothing scenario, but I question what his impact will be. I just don’t see it being enough to counteract Atlanta’s advantage here in outside shooting. The Hawks rank 2nd in 3-point shooting and face a defense that’s been 24th in defending the three since early March.
Atlanta looks like they’re firing on all cylinders right now, and it’s easy to forget that this team was an Eastern Conference finalist last season. I see them being able to pull away from a Cavs squad that’s still shorthanded and punch their playoff ticket here.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Trae Young Over 29.5 Points (-110)
I went against Young in their opener on Wednesday, and it paid off with him somehow only managing 24 points in a game where his team dropped 132. But the Cavs – despite their strong defense – don’t have the answer for Ice Trae like the Charlotte Hornets did, and I expect him to return to form.
This prop is down from Wednesday’s number thanks to him going under, but it discounts his history against both Charlotte and Cleveland. Against the Cavs this season, Young has averaged 32.5 PPG and gone over this prop 3 times (not coincidentally the 3 games Atlanta won). After being bottled up on Wednesday, I’m expecting Young to bounce back in a big way here for one of his typical postseason performances.
Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit): Jonas Valanciunas Over 31.5 Points & Rebounds (-110)
I mentioned on Tuesday how the Clippers struggle against centers, and they should again tonight. Even though they bottled up KAT, a lot of that was self-inflicted because of him playing away from the basket. That will not be the case with Jonas Valanciunas tonight, who will do most of his damage inside as a more typical post player.
The Pelicans center has already done plenty of damage to the Clippers this season, going over this prop in 3 of 4 meetings with a 36 points-plus-rebounds average. He also combined for 36 on Wednesday against a Spurs team that has similar struggles down low. New Orleans will need to maximize this advantage to have any hope, so expect another big game from the Pels big man.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 682-550 ATS (+82.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
