Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) Memphis Grizzlies @ Minnesota Timberwolves +2 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on TNT
This was always going to be Minnesota’s best opportunity to win a game in this series, and now it becomes their best opportunity to seize control of it. A massively hyped-up home crowd is a guarantee here and should help fuel the Wolves in this bounce-back spot. And bouncing back is something the Wolves have done well all season, going 22-14 ATS after a straight-up loss.
The Wolves also won both home games against Memphis during the regular season, one of those being a 43-point blowout against a full-strength Grizzlies roster. Let’s also not forget that Memphis is just 5-15 ATS in their past 20 playoff games, particularly struggling on the road. Minnesota can’t afford to have the same lackluster offense that showed up on Tuesday, but this team knows full well how to beat Memphis, especially in Target Center. Count me as a believer that the Wolves can exploit their home-court advantages to grab a 2-1 series lead.
Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit): Jaren Jackson Jr. Under 1.5 Made Threes (-110)
There’s a common thread running through all six meetings between these teams on the year. In the three Wolves wins, Jackson doesn’t shoot well. But in the three Grizzlies wins he’s on fire, particularly from outside. Triple-J also missed all of his 3-point attempts in the two meetings in Minnesota, where the Wolves are marginally better at defending the three. I honestly don’t know how he makes anything with that shooting form, but I’m counting on another quiet night for Jackson from downtown here.
NBA (0.75 Unit) Dallas Mavericks/Utah Jazz Over 210 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on NBA TV
Since the Mavericks and their slowest-in-the-NBA pace are involved, this was never going to be a high-flying series. Certainly not in the mold of what we’re used to from the Jazz, whose past 14 playoff games are 11-3 to the over. But after a slog of a Game 1, the totals for Monday and today got a little too deflated. The market is reacting appropriately in my mind, driving this up a point from the opener, but I still see this game getting over the total.
Saturday’s opening game was the anomaly between these teams, who are now 5-1 over tonight’s total this year, averaging 215.5 points. But they’re just 3-3 against the posted totals which have averaged 212.8 points, which speaks to this number being a little deflated. There are also rumors of Luka Doncic giving it a go tonight, which can only boost overall scoring. Utah’s shooting, scoring, and offensive efficiency take big leaps when they’re at home, so I’d expect this game to get over what is a fairly low number.
NBA (0.75 Unit) Golden State Warriors/Denver Nuggets Over 223.5 (-110): 9:00 PM CT on TNT
Denver desperately needs a home game to get its offense back on track. I think they should be able to, at least to some extent, and certainly enough to cash a third straight over in this series.
The Nuggets are another team that sees big boosts to their scoring when playing at home, and it’s reflected in them being the 3rd-best home over team in the league. I’m anticipating them truly attacking Golden State on the interior with presumptive MVP Nikola Jokic, something they really haven’t done so far in this series. But that doesn’t mean they have an answer defensively for the hot-shooting Warriors, so that could make this a game of trading buckets all night.
This total also doesn’t make a lot of sense from a numbers perspective, as it’s only a point higher than Game 1 and 2’s totals. Those easily hit the over despite Denver falling flat offensively, along with being played in San Francisco where the Warriors were heavily skewed to the under all season. With the Nuggets likely to contribute much more scoring here, this one should find its way over as well.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Denver Nuggets -1 First Quarter (-110)
No, I’m not falling into the trap of a team down 0-2 in the series coming out strong at home. The Nuggets have just been really good at getting on top of the Warriors early all season long. They led after a quarter in Games 1 and 2 despite getting blown out in the game, putting them at 4-2 in first quarters against Golden State this season with a +2.8 average margin. And yes, this Denver team will be desperate and should play like it, so I’ll back them to take an early lead again tonight.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 691-559 ATS (+82.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
