Locks
NBA (0.75 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves/Memphis Grizzlies Under 229 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN
Being that we’re in a close-out scenario here, I expect this Game 6 to be played tightly and methodically. And with this being the tenth meeting of the season, these teams know each other so well that defense gains an extra edge. The series has also trended to less scoring than anticipated, with just 224.6 average points against an average posted total of 235.9 points.
Most of this series has been played at a low-scoring pace, with those first quarters acting as outliers to boost scoring. Averaging the other quarters and extrapolating them into full games puts the average score at 214.4 points, and that’s what I expect to see a lot more of throughout this game. With the Wolves on the brink and at home where their games are much lower-scoring, expect defense to take over and create an under here.
Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit): Timberwolves +1.5 (-110)
The Wolves are fighting some strong historical trends here to force a Game 7, as road favorites in Game 6’s are on a 31-11-1 ATS run. But Minnesota has taken every brutal gut punch in this series and bounced back from it, so why not another? To be honest, this line is suspiciously short in my mind. The Grizzlies were laying 2.5 in both previous games at Target Center and an average of 5 throughout the series, so a shorter number like that has me gravitating toward the underdog. We all want to see a Game 7 in this wild series, so I’m backing the Wolves to make it happen.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 705-567 ATS (+86.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
