Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) Philadelphia 76ers/Miami Heat 1st Quarter Under 53.5 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on TNT
First quarters have been surprisingly high-scoring in this series, going 2-2 against this total while averaging 50.8 points. The most obvious outlier was Sunday’s Game 4, in which James Harden channeled 2017 all night and the opening quarter saw 58 points. But these teams are taking their talents back to South Beach, and that should force a different type of start to tonight’s game.
As a team that makes a name for themselves on the defensive end, consecutive blowouts up in Philly cannot be sitting well with the Heat. That should get them focused and aggressive on defense tonight, especially early behind a hyped home crowd. Miami was the best in the NBA this season in limiting first quarter scoring at home, allowing just 24.5 average points to visitors. I see the Heat making the necessary adjustments, leveraging their home-court advantage, and keeping scoring down to start this game.
NBA (0.75 Unit) Dallas Mavericks/Phoenix Suns Over 213 (-110): 9:00 PM CT on TNT
The Phoenix offense has done quite the Jekyll and Hyde act in this series depending on where they’re playing. The meager outputs of 94 and 101 in Dallas were very surprising for a team that looked unstoppable after 120-plus outbursts in the first two games. Then it’s a good thing they’re coming back to Footprint Center tonight where they’re averaging 117.2 PPG this postseason, a full 12 points more than the road.
That should once again drive scoring here, and I see the Mavericks going along for the ride. Dallas was the best home under team this year but the road was a different story, plus they’re scoring 109.2 PPG on the road this postseason. With the precedent of Games 1 and 2, plus the Suns looking to atone for the past two ugly performances, I see plenty of scoring to get this over a fairly low total.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Chris Paul Over 16.5 Points (-110)
It was a rough birthday weekend for CP3 in Dallas, only managing 17 points combined in the two games. But I expect a big bounce-back performance from Paul here, with plenty of motivation and frustration to fuel his scoring. I also expect the Suns to bounce back in general and win this game, and that means good things for CP3 who has been otherworldly in their wins this postseason. He’s averaged 26.7 PPG in their 6 playoff wins and is also 5-0 over this number in their home games. The only thing that would get me off this bet – and I’m not kidding – is if Scott Foster gets assigned to this game. Otherwise expect a big night from The Point God.
MLB (0.75 Unit) Milwaukee Brewers/Cincinnati Reds Over 8.5 (-110): 5:40 PM CT on Bally Sports OH
Despite one of the worst opening months in MLB history, there are actually signs of life coming from Cincinnati. The problem for the Reds hasn’t so much been scoring runs, it’s been horrendous pitching and defense. But that’s music to my ears as an over bettor here, especially with every total in baseball massively depressed by the lack of overall scoring.
The Reds have averaged 5.1 runs over their past 13 games, with a 12-1 record over tonight’s total in that stretch. That includes 4 games against Milwaukee that all went over this total with an average of 15.2 runs per game. The Brewers have also been an over machine lately, with an 8-2 over record in their past 10 games. They also lit up Reds starter Hunter Greene in his last start for 8 runs before the 3rd inning was done. Milwaukee’s bats tend to run hot and cold, but against the pitching and defense of Cincinnati, I’m expecting plenty of offense to get this game over the total.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 714-587 ATS (+81.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
