Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) Milwaukee Bucks @ Boston Celtics -5.5 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on TNT
This might be a back-and-forth series in the sense that these teams have alternated wins and losses. But the past three games have shown me a trend towards the Celtics. A 23-point blowout win, nearly completing a big comeback, then blowing past the Bucks late like they’re Rich Strike has me giving a strong edge to Boston at this point.
A big key for me is how Giannis Antetokounmpo is starting to look after carrying his team for seven games since the Khris Middleton injury. While he’s tried to do it all, that’s simply not possible, and he looks gassed as a result. Milwaukee’s role players have not stepped up in a meaningful way the past few games, Jrue Holiday has been disastrous offensively, and now they have to go on the road where supporting cast typically plays worse. The Celtics are now 6-2 ATS in these playoffs, I believe they have the upper hand here and see them getting a comfortable win tonight.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Golden State Warriors/Memphis Grizzlies Over 218.5 (-110): 8:30 PM CT on TNT
Speaking of alternating results, the totals in this series have been wild. From 233 to 207, to 254, to 199, so tonight should be….? I’m leaning over, not so much due to any zig-zag theory but because of what these teams are capable of. Monday’s Game 4 saw these elite shooting teams go ice cold, shooting a combined 40.9% from the field and 25% from deep. From a possessions perspective, both teams exceeded their season average, so the pace was there but shots just wouldn’t drop.
I see that turning around tonight, and feel like I’m taking advantage of a highly discounted number here. This is the lowest total for either team in the postseason by a full 4 points, and that creates a lot of value on the over if the shooting can revert to form. My one concern is the coaching downgrade for Golden State here from Steve Kerr to Mike Brown, which certainly could have contributed to Game 4 looking so ugly. But most metrics projections I’m seeing have this more in the 222 range, so I’ll count on the offenses to figure it out here.
Degenerates
NBA Boston Celtics Team Total Over 109.5 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on TNT
I’m tempted by the over in this game because I think the offensive eruption down the stretch of Game 4 can carry over to tonight. Of course, that eruption was fueled primarily by Boston, and I have plenty of questions about Milwaukee’s offense. So that’s why I’m looking to specifically back Boston here, as they appear to have found the way to beat the Bucks defense.
It’s also important to note that a worn-down Giannis will be far less effective defensively. So even though this is the highest team total Boston has faced in the series, I’m seeing a strong offensive output here from their end.
Tiny Nick is 716-589 ATS (+81.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
