Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) Golden State Warriors/Boston Celtics Under 210 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on ABC
It’s an elimination game of the NBA Finals, so you would be hard-pressed to find a scenario where defensive effort will be higher. There’s much being made about positive regression from Game 5’s ugly shooting numbers – particularly from deep for Golden State and Steph Curry – and it’s true that should drive up scoring a bit. There have also been statements from the Celtics about how they want to push the tempo more, but I’ll believe that when I see it.
Until then I’m seeing two teams who have averaged 208.2 PPG in this series, and 208.1 across all meetings this season. They’re two of the best defensive teams in all of basketball, with one having a chance to secure an NBA title and the other trying to stay alive. While this is the lowest total of the series, I believe it’s justified. I simply can’t look at this situation, with these teams, and see anything but a lower-scoring game that cashes under tickets.
Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit): Andrew Wiggins Double-Double (+220)
Small play on this, but the value is definitely there. The implied probability here of 31% just isn’t high enough after consecutive double-doubles for Maple Jordan. It’s the rebounding prowess Wiggins has displayed that gets my attention, as he’s obviously making a concerted effort to be the Windex man after Boston dominated the boards early in this series. Wiggins probably won’t have as big a scoring night as Game 4, but playing the same role he has the past two games should see him rack up the stats enough to cash this juicy return.
Extra Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Klay Thompson Over 3.5 Made Three-Pointers (-120)
The juice is obviously going to be on the over for this when there’s the potential for a “Game 6 Klay” performance. Thompson is locked in right now after some early struggles in this series, and combining that with his Game 6 history could make him a bad man tonight.
Klay has gone over this number in each of the past three games and increased his 3-point percentage each game also. In the 12 Game 6’s he’s played in his career, Thompson has shot 49.5% from deep, higher than any game so far this series. It’s scary to think there’s room for improvement, but even continuing at his current pace gets this ticket to cash.
Bonus Extra Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit) Jayson Tatum Over 3.5 Turnovers (-110)
When a team relies as heavily on a player as the Celtics do on Jayson Tatum, there are bound to be mistakes made. Unfortunately for Tatum, he’s been making them at a record-setting clip, reaching 95 turnovers this postseason and surpassing the previous record set by LeBron James in 2018. With an average of 4.1 per game and the Warriors looking like they’re starting to solve Boston’s offense, I see Tatum continuing to cough it up tonight.
MLB (0.75 Unit) Detroit Tigers Team Total Under 4 (-110): 6:10 PM CT on Bally Sports Detroit
The Tigers can’t hit or score. That’s an entirely objective statement as Detroit is dead last in baseball with just 168 runs scored, an incredible 40 runs behind the light-hitting Oakland Athletics. The Tigers are 28th in average, 29th in on-base percentage, 30th in OPS, and have hit the fewest home runs as well.
Detroit is averaging just 2.7 runs per game and has a record of 43-10-9 under this total on the season. That’s remarkably consistent futility that I see continuing here tonight. Texas Rangers starter Martín Pérez had an out-of-this-world month of May, building an ERA of 0.64 on shutting down a lot of weak offenses. They don’t get any weaker than the Tigers, so expect Perez to hold them below this number once again.
MLB (0.75 Unit) Milwaukee Brewers @ NY Mets -1.5 (+155): 6:10 PM CT on SNY
I’m breaking some personal rules about home teams and the run line here because I’m enticed by the juicy return. The Mets are laying -135 in this game, which seems a little low given the struggles Milwaukee is going through. But to gain 90 cents of juice for them to win by two-plus runs is a massive swing in value and something I have to pounce on.
It starts with the Brewers, who when they lose tend to do so in spectacular fashion. Of their 29 losses this season, 22 have come by multiple runs and those have averaged a loss by 4.7 runs. On their current stretch of 9 losses in 11 games, all but one has been by multiple runs. So if you think Milwaukee loses tonight, as I do, they’re a good bet to lose big.
Meanwhile, the Mets have seen 33 of their 41 wins this season come by two-plus runs, and own the 2nd-best record against the run line in baseball. I like their chances of holding down the inconsistent Milwaukee lineup here with Tylor Megill, who has dominated right-handed bats that are mostly what the Brewers have on their roster. That all makes the return here too good to pass up, so count on the Mets to win another one easily tonight.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 773-636 ATS (+85.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
