Locks
MLB (1 Unit) Minnesota Twins Team Total Over 5 (-110): 6:40 PM CT on Bally Sports North
I’m pretty surprised to see the Twins laying -170 against one of the hottest teams in baseball. But there’s an obvious expectation that Minnesota will get to Guardians starter Aaron Civale here, and that’s justified. The Cleveland righty is fresh off a month on the injury list, and things were going horribly before that. Civale owns a 7.84 ERA this season, which balloons to 12.00 in his road starts.
Against right-handed batters – which dominate the Twins lineup and were red-hot during the last homestand – Civale is getting crushed to the tune of a .366 average and 1.059 OPS. Plus, we’ve seen this movie before, when Cleveland last visited Target Field last month. Civale’s start in that series saw him allow 6 runs in a game where the Twins plated 12 total. A big wind blowing out of Target Field tonight will also help the Twins rebound from an inconsistent road trip at the plate, especially against a pitcher like they’ll face here.
MLB (0.75 Unit) Cincinnati Reds Team Total Under 4 (-110): 5:40 PM CT on Bally Sports Ohio
Tony Gonsolin is a bad man right now. The Dodgers righty is on a serious run of dominance this season, having never been tagged for more than 2 runs in any of his 12 starts. The opposing team is 9-1-2 under this team total in those games, with the only over happening two months ago and that wasn’t Gonsolin’s fault anyway. He has held down some fairly impressive lineups as well, but that’s not exactly what he’ll see today.
The Reds seem to have cooled off a bit from a stretch where they were beating up on bad pitching. They’ve averaged just 3.5 runs per game the past two weeks and only went over this number 3 times in that stretch. A big key here is the presence of so many right-handed bats in the Cincy lineup, as Gonsolin has only allowed a .128 average and .431 OPS to that side of the plate.
Gonsolin shut down the Reds in their only other meeting this season, back when Cincy looked like they’d shatter the season losses record. While they’ve improved since, so has Gonsolin, and I’ll trust the locked-in pitcher to hold down a lineup that’s not particularly scary.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Washington Nationals/Baltimore Orioles Over 9.5 (-110): 6:05 PM CT on MASN
We have two gas cans taking the mound in this one, as Erick Fedde for Washington and Jordan Lyles for Baltimore look to fuel another slugfest. That’s been a common theme recently, as all 6 of their combined starts this month have gone over tonight’s total. They’ve also combined for a sky-high 6.97 ERA across those games, and shouldn’t get much help from their bullpens either. So while these offenses can be wildly inconsistent, I just can’t pass up an over when two bad teams and pitchers square off.
MLB (0.75 Unit) NY Yankees -1.5 @ Tampa Bay Rays (+115): 6:10 PM CT on Bally Sports Sun
So, Tampa, you’re going to start a left-handed pitcher against this freight train of a Yankees lineup and expect that to give you a chance against Nasty Nestor? Okay, good luck. Josh Fleming appears to be the starter for the Rays here and really struggles against right-handed bats, allowing a .362 average and .993 OPS this season. And he hasn’t faced the Yankees yet, who stack up more right-handed power bats than any team in the league.
If that wasn’t a bad enough outlook for Tampa, they have to go up against Nestor Cortes again who has tormented them this season. Despite actually being better against lefties, the struggling Rays lineup only has a combined .178 average and .470 OPS against Cortes, who led the Yanks to a 7-2 win in his last start in Tampa. The Yankees are 3-2 when visiting this team that used to have their number, with all of the wins by two-plus runs. Given the trajectory these teams are on and the pitchers involved, I see New York continuing to roll here.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 779-646 ATS (+82.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
