Locks
MLB (1 Unit) NY Mets/Miami Marlins Over 7.5 (-110): 3:10 PM CT on Bally Sports FL
I try to target Marlins starter Trevor Rogers every opportunity I can, and his presence makes this number simply too low. Rogers has been extremely inconsistent this season but you can find plenty of consistency in how bad he’s been at home, allowing an 8.85 ERA and .326 on-base average. That’s caused all of his home starts to go over this total, as well as 6 of his past 7 overall.
So that makes me pretty confident that the Mets will take advantage, just as they did when they saw Rogers on Monday in New York. What didn’t happen in that game was anything productive from Miami, who got shut out. But the Marlins hit for average and power far better in home games, where they have the 2nd-best over percentage in the league as a result. They’ll also see Chris Bassitt today who has a 5.46 road ERA, and as a right-hander is what Miami is far better against. With both pitchers vulnerable and plenty of trends in my favor, I’ll definitely be looking over this very low total.
MLB (0.5 Unit) SF Giants Team Total Over 4.5 (-110): 6:15 PM CT on NBCS-Bay Area
I’m old enough to remember when Mike Minor was really good, but those days are long gone. With Minor getting the start and an atrocious bullpen behind him, the Giants should do a lot of damage in this game. And I see the full game total has come down a notch after last night’s game fell under, which is an overreaction by the books and only serves to artificially hold down the number for the Giants.
But I don’t trust the Cincinnati offense against Logan Webb at home, so I’m isolating the Reds pitching staff as my target here. Regardless of last night’s performance from San Fran, the Reds still have the highest team ERA in baseball. And Minor’s underlying numbers reflect an aging pitcher who has lost significant velocity, allowing the opponent in his starts to average 6.25 runs per game. With the Giants looking to bounce back from last night, I see them getting the bats going and putting up some crooked numbers here.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Philadelphia Phillies/San Diego Padres Over 7.5 (-110): 9:10 PM CT on Bally Sports San Diego
It’s another very low total in this one that I’m looking to exploit. While there are concerns around both offenses, the concerns around both pitchers outweigh them in my book. Zach Eflin for the Phillies just gets them into high-scoring games, as his starts are 9-3 over tonight’s total on the season. And his 7.96 road ERA is something even a team as depleted as the Padres can exploit.
But I see the Philly offense backing him up here like they’ve done all season, giving him 5.3 runs of support on average. The Phils are also the 4th-highest scoring team on the road with the 3rd-best OPS, and they rake against lefties like Blake Snell. They should get plenty of free passes from Snell too, as his control has dipped significantly and is a major factor in his 5.28 ERA at home. But this total suggests excellent pitchers taking the mound and that’s simply not the case, so I’m looking to the over.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 781-653 ATS (+79 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
