Locks
MLB (0.5 Unit) LA Angels/Texas Rangers Over 8.5 (-110): 7:05 PM CT on Bally Sports SW
The scoring trends when these two teams get together are pretty drastic and has me anticipating plenty of runs tonight. In their 13 meetings so far this season, the Angels and Rangers have gone over tonight’s total 10 times with an average of 10.6 runs per game. But when they play in Texas it gets wild, going 7-0 to the over with 12.4 runs on average. The hitter-friendly Globe Life Field has seen the most overs of any park this season, and another should be coming here.
While the pitching matchup isn’t custom-built for offensive fireworks, I’m not too concerned about it given the trends and offenses involved. Patrick Sandoval will have to face a lot of right-handed bats from Texas, which is not his strength. And rookie Cole Ragans for the Rangers has struggled with that hitter-friendly park in his limited action this season, posting a 6.43 ERA at home. Since we’re late in the season and these teams are long since eliminated from contention, we should also see September call-up relievers getting work and giving up runs. But the history between these teams is too much to ignore and should produce another over tonight.
Degenerates
MLB Minnesota Twins First 5 Innings Team Total Under 2.5 (-110): 7:10 PM CT on MLB Network
I’m a true believer in the incredible home/road splits for Zack Greinke, and that’s what this play is entirely based on. Having a 1.93 ERA in home games with a season-long 4.10 ERA is just wild, but Greinke is pulling it off. I just refuse to get in the way of that dominance, even against a Twins team that has strong long-term numbers against him.
In his 11 home starts this season, the Royals righty has only allowed one team to get over this number in the first five innings. That includes his only home start against Minnesota back in April, allowing 1 run to a Twins team with all its stars in the lineup. The Twins might get to the awful Kansas City bullpen later in the game, but I just don’t see them clearing this total against such a dominant home pitcher.
Tiny Nick is 860-725 ATS (+72.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
