The 2021 NFL Draft was an important one for the Minnesota Vikings. Coming off a disappointing season, they needed to find a way to improve their current roster while also preparing for the future.
Mike Zimmer’s defense was full of holes, but Kirk Cousins was nearing the end of a two-year extension he signed after the 2019 season. With Cousins’ age and mostly mediocre production, then-general manager Rick Spielman had a decision to make. He had to find a franchise quarterback or bolster the roster elsewhere.
Spielman attempted to do both, trading back for Christian Darrisaw in the first round and stockpiling third-round picks. One of those selections was Kellen Mond, but the Vikings’ Plan A at quarterback was to acquire Justin Fields.
The Vikings tried to trade up with the Carolina Panthers as the Ohio State quarterback was slipping down the board, but they weren’t willing to give up the amount of premium draft capital needed for a blockbuster deal. The Chicago Bears stepped in and gave the New York Giants two first-round picks, a 2022 fourth-round pick, and a 2021 fifth-round pick to take Fields with the 11th-overall selection.
The news was met with reservation in Minnesota. Fields was a much better prospect than Mond coming out of college. The Vikings had just let a potential quarterback of the future get away. Not only that, but a division rival had swooped in and got him.
Almost two years into Fields’ career, the feeling has changed. The Bears come into U.S. Bank Stadium on Sunday in the middle of an extensive rebuild. They’ve replaced general manager Ryan Pace and head coach Matt Nagy, who made the deal to acquire Fields, and the Bears appear content to tank their way to a top-five pick.
Fields no longer looks like the top prospect he was at Ohio State, but he does create an alternate universe. Did the Vikings dodge a bullet after being outbid for Fields? Or would a different support system in Minnesota unlock the potential he showed with the Buckeyes?
The answer may be somewhere in between.
If you’ve watched Fields this season, you see a quarterback struggling to adapt to the NFL. In 12 games during his rookie season, he completed just under 59% of his passes while throwing for seven touchdowns and 10 interceptions. The numbers weren’t pretty, but they also came under the guidance of a lame-duck coach.
After Chicago replaced Nagy with Matt Eberflus, the Bears believed there was enough to work with to get more out of Fields this offseason.
“I just see a guy that’s ready to develop,” Eberflus told SI’s Albert Breer in February. “He’s so ready to develop and wants to be a sponge. We’ve talked about giving him an education on the defensive side in terms of coverages as well as the offensive side in terms of schemes.
“He’s ready to develop and excited to get going. Certainly, he has the skillset to move the ball with his legs, and we’re also looking at the concept of him being able to get the ball out of his hands, take what the defense gives you and not only the underneath throws, but also the deep throw.”
Eberflus’ assessment made sense. Few passers were better at throwing the deep ball in college than Fields. He posted a 96.5 Pro Football Focus grade on throws of 20 yards or more during his final season with the Buckeyes. He had an adjusted completion percentage – which accounts for dropped passes, throwaways, and other things outside the quarterback’s control – of 80.2%, second in the country to fellow first-round pick Mac Jones.
The Bears made one mistake, however, and that was with the supporting cast. Chicago’s offensive line clocked in at 22nd in Pro Football Focus’ offensive line rankings last season, and they filled their skill positions with several disappointments. David Montgomery‘s knee injury and Allen Robinson checking out mentally depleted the Bears’ offense during Fields’ rookie season. With some deft offseason of moves, Fields could be placed in a better environment.
Unfortunately, the Bears didn’t have the salary cap space or draft picks to make that happen. Their big acquisitions along the offensive line were Julién Davenport and Dakota Dozier. Their major additions to the receiver room were journeymen David Moore, Byron Pringle, and Equanimeous St. Brown. Even drafting 25-year-old rookie Velus Jones and a late-August trade for N’Keal Harry had bust written all over it.
Fields was in the same position he was one year ago.
Compare this to the situation that Fields would have had with the Vikings. Cousins could have started the entire 2021 season, allowing him to soak up the offense. With the way the season turned out, Fields could have ascended to the starting spot in 2022 and walked into an offense with a variety of weapons.
Imagine Fields’ deep throws landing into the arms of Justin Jefferson. Think about Fields with a red-zone target like Adam Thielen. Zimmer would have drooled at Fields’ dual-threat ability to open the running game for Dalvin Cook. There were plenty of possibilities, but one flaw remained.
Because the Bears jumped in front of the Vikings, they could turn their attention to the offensive line. While Wyatt Davis turned out to be a bust, Darrisaw appears to be every bit of a franchise left tackle. Perhaps the Vikings could have landed a high pick in a Cousins trade to draft a different offensive tackle or even sign one in free agency with the money saved by trading Cousins. But none of them would have had the same upside as Darrisaw, who has earned Trent Williams comparisons during his second season.
Fields could deal with the pressure by using his mobility, but that hasn’t panned out in Chicago. At 27.4, Fields has the fifth-lowest passer rating when pressured among quarterbacks with at least 20% of the league lead in snaps. This has also come under a large sample size as Fields has been pressured on 49% of his dropbacks – the third-highest clip in the league.
Fields also has regressed in his deep passing, which made him such a desired prospect. Only Lamar Jackson (48.3) and Derek Carr (43.7) have a lower PFF grade on throws 20 yards or more this season. His 30.8 adjusted completion percentage ranks 28th among qualifying quarterbacks.
The Vikings also didn’t have the culture to develop a quarterback. With his job on the line, Zimmer stopped short of locking Mond in a closet during his rookie season. Judging by his preseason performance, it’s unlikely he received the practice reps to have any sort of development.
This alternate history for the Vikings and Bears may have resulted in a lose-lose situation. If Fields landed in Minnesota, he would have had to have dealt with a bad offensive line and a coaching staff focused on the present. He lands in Chicago, and he’s given a complete lack of weapons and a front office that has no ties to him.
That means the Bears may have done the Vikings a favor when they outbid them for Fields.
