In his first offseason as general manager, Kewsi Adofo-Mensah will have several big decisions to make. The Minnesota Vikings are in the middle of the pack in the NFC, and he’ll have to make changes to get them over the top.
Everyone is fixated on what the Vikings will do about Kirk Cousins. But few are talking about the other big decision that has to be made.
With an $18 million roster bonus due on March 20, the Vikings will have to decide on Danielle Hunter‘s fate. Getting rid of an elite pass rusher in his prime seemed ludicrous a couple of years ago. But the reality of Hunter’s situation makes it possible he’s played his last game in Minnesota.
Before we examine this from every angle, we need to make something clear: The Vikings’ defense is better with Hunter.
According to Pro Football Reference, Hunter ranks ninth in franchise history with 60.5 sacks. He also ranks fifth since sacks became an official statistic in 1982. He’s the youngest player in NFL history to reach 50 sacks and was on a Hall of Fame trajectory before injuries plagued him in the last two years.
The impact that Hunter has on this defense can be measured by the 2020 season. After he missed the entire year with a neck injury, the Vikings managed only 23 sacks. Not only was that number just 8.5 sacks over the number that Hunter registered (14.5) in each of the two previous seasons, it was 28th in the league.
That’s why Hunter’s return was a key reason for optimism last season. In seven games, Hunter led the Vikings with six sacks before tearing his pectoral muscle. The Vikings averaged more sacks per game when Hunter was out of the lineup, but their rushing defense suffered because teams attacked the edge.
Minnesota’s depth was exposed when Hunter went down, and Mike Zimmer’s defense wilted. With D.J. Wonnum the projected starter, having Hunter on the other side could greatly benefit the Vikings. But like with many things with this roster, it could come down to money.
Hunter’s $26.1 million cap hit is second-largest on the Vikings in 2022. While many have pointed to Cousins’ contract as a possible way to relieve pressure on the salary cap, Hunter may be the more expendable commodity.
The Vikings’ strength currently resides in their offense. With Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, and a bevy of weapons at his disposal, Cousins could be in for the best year of his career. Mix in an offensive head coach, and it makes sense to keep him for another year or two.
Also, finding a quarterback of Cousins’ caliber to replace him would take time. The Vikings could find a bridge in free agency and draft a quarterback of the future. However, the odds of either reaching the same level of play as Cousins in 2022 are slim.
Compare that to where the Vikings are at on defense. Anthony Barr is expected to leave in free agency. Harrison Smith, Eric Kendricks, and Patrick Peterson could also be on the way out. And the Vikings just lost Andre Patterson, who was instrumental in Hunter’s development.
Put it all together and Hunter could be football’s equivalent of Will Smith standing in an empty room.
However, those things could also entice the Vikings to find a way to keep Hunter.
In Adofo-Mensah’s previous stops, his teams have prioritized investing in edge rushers. He saw the San Francisco 49ers add Nick Bosa to an already strong defense. He watched his mentor, Andrew Berry, make Myles Garrett the highest-paid defensive end in the NFL in Cleveland. Then he watched him double down by adding Takk McKinley and Jadeveon Clowney in free agency.
At age 27, Hunter’s best years may be ahead of him, but there’s also a case that this is the time to trade Hunter.
Although they wouldn’t get a deal similar to what the Oakland Raiders got for Khalil Mack, some teams will look at Hunter’s track record and overpay for his services. And it comes at a time when the Vikings can justify getting rid of a player who has missed 26 of Minnesota’s last 33 games due to injury.
If Hunter returns and posts another double-digit-sack season, the Vikings would be inclined to keep him. That would be a great short-term gain. But Minnesota would also be required to give him a big contract, complicating their salary cap situation.
For a defense that needs help at every level, a return of draft picks could be a better solution. If the Vikings switch to a 3-4 scheme, it gives new defensive coordinator Ed Donatell ammo to get the players he wants in the draft. This would accelerate a rebuild on defense.
Keeping Hunter in Minnesota has to be the preferred outcome for the Vikings. But if it doesn’t work out, there may not be a better time to say goodbye.
