The Minnesota Vikings will return nearly all their skill-position players from last year. The offense should, theoretically, be the team’s strength under new head coach Kevin O’Connell. So what could an entire season of production look like for these players, and how could it differ from the previous year?
Kirk Cousins
2021: 4,221 yards, 33 TDs, seven interceptions (16 games)
2022 Prediction: 4,305 yards, 34 TDs, 10 interceptions
Cousins will build off last year’s strong campaign and enjoy continued success in O’Connell’s offensive system. His yards and touchdowns could remain very similar, but his interceptions might make a noticeable jump for the worse. Shockingly, I will be happy to see this because it means a coach finally allows Kirk to let it rip. He might even throw to the sticks on third down, which would be a welcome sight even if he plays a little more risky. For example, Cousins had an average yards per attempt (YPA) on third down of 7.8 last season. Conversely, the Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Rams ranked No. 1 and No. 2 with a YPA of 10.0 and 9.8, respectively, and met in the Super Bowl.
Dalvin Cook
2021: 1,159 rushing yards, six rushing TDs, 34 receptions, 234 receiving yards (13 games)
2022 Prediction: 1,207 rushing yards, 15 rushing TDs, 51 receptions, 404 receiving yards
Cook missed four games last year to injury but still finished fifth in rushing, league-wide. There’s no reason to think 2022 won’t be even better, especially with his increased involvement in the passing game in practice. But the most significant improvement in his numbers is the predicted spike in touchdowns, from five to 15. Last year, Cook was third in red-zone rushing attempts. No one has had more red-zone rushing attempts in the previous three years. He will most likely be splitting more carries with a deep and impressive backfield, but there’s no doubt when it comes down to crunch time — aka, every part of every Vikings game ever — Cook will be the go-to playmaker.
Irv Smith Jr.
2021: N/A
2022 Prediction: 71 receptions, 774 yards, four TDs
Smith missed the entire 2021 campaign due to injury and has much to prove this year to show he deserves an extension. If he can stay healthy, he has a Hulk-like grasp on the starting job, with virtually no one else in the tight end room to steal any targets. Smith can put together a really positive season, but there’s a lot of competition for red-zone opportunities with Cook and a trio of impressive receivers. If he misses time with injuries again, the Vikings could be trouble at the tight end spot.
Justin Jefferson
2021: 108 receptions, 1,616 yards, 10 TDs (17 games)
2022 Prediction: 117 receptions, 1,766 yards, 12 TDs
Jefferson has already established himself as a top-two receiver in the league, and he’s not No. 2 in most Vikings fans’ opinion. And while he’s publicly stated he wants to get 2000 yards this year, that may be a bit of a stretch even for him. Still, Jefferson is a monster, and he figures to only get better in a new offensive scheme — if such a thing is possible.
Adam Thielen
2021: 67 receptions, 726 yards, 10 TDs (13 games)
2022 Prediction: 72 receptions, 878 yards, seven TDs
Adam Thielen, 32, has missed games in the last three seasons. His deep-threat abilities are also declining, as his yards per reception has fallen each of the previous three seasons. However, he was Cousins’ favorite red-zone target a year ago, and there’s no reason to think that will change. But with K.J. Osborn emerging and a body that has struggled to hold up for an entire season, it’s safe to say Thielen’s best years are behind him. He still can be a deadly weapon, though, if opponents try to double-team Jefferson.
K.J. Osborn
2021: 50 receptions, 655 yards, seven TDs (17 games)
2022 Prediction: 68 receptions, 850 yards, six TDs
Osborn is a former fifth-round pick who burst onto the scene last year, filling up the stat sheet in Thielen and Smith’s absence. The Vikings could end up using more three wide receiver sets this season, setting Osborn up for another impressive year. He’s still slated to be behind Thielen on the depth chart this year, but that’s no guarantee in the 2023 season. At this rate, Osborn may end up costing the Vikings a pretty penny someday.
