Armed with skill-position players that would rival (if not exceed) what Kevin O’Connell had with the Los Angeles Rams over the past two years, the Minnesota Vikings have an under-the-radar player who could be one of the biggest X-factors for the 2022 season: Irv Smith Jr.
Fans and analysts spend a lot of time hashing over whether Justin Jefferson can replicate the level of production that Cooper Kupp had last season with Matthew Stafford. And although the tight end position has largely been overshadowed in the Rams’ offense by Kupp and Robert Woods since Sean McVay took over in 2017, there used to be a larger emphasis put on tight ends during McVay’s stint in Washington, which bodes well for Smith. (And, oddly enough, both former Washington TE Jordan Reed and Irv Smith Jr. are 6’2″, 242 lbs.)
With Kirk Cousins, Sean McVay, and Kevin O’Connell overlapping his time in Washington from 2013 to 2019, Jordan Reed looked poised to be one of the best tight ends in the league. In 2015, with Cousins as his quarterback and McVay as his play-caller, Reed broke out in his third year with 114 targets, 87 receptions, 952 yards, and 11 touchdowns — all team highs that season. Unfortunately for Reed, he struggled with various injuries following his Pro Bowl 2016 season and never fully regained his level of production from 2015.
Granted, Reed never had to share the field with receivers as talented as Jefferson, Thielen, Kupp, or Woods, which played a role in Reed’s status as the top option for Washington’s passing game. That offenses in Washington used a lot of 11-personnel (one running back, one tight end, three receivers) and allowed for Reed to create mismatch opportunities.
Let’s take a look back at how McVay maximized Reed’s skillset during their time together in Washington.
Against the Dallas Cowboys in 2016, Washington faces a third-and-four from the Cowboys’ 36-yard line. McVay calls for an 11-personnel and lines Reed outside in a 2×2 look. Cousins sends slot receiver Jamison Crowder in motion and signals the man coverage, thus confirming that Reed is isolated in press-man with a single-high safety over the top.
With Washington feeling pretty good about their chances in this particular matchup, Reed gets vertical on your run-of-the-mill fade route. Cousins recognizes the mismatch pre-snap by making Reed the primary read.
As Cousins has done for much of his career, his well-placed throw that traveled 30 air yards connects with Reed. Suddenly, Washington is knocking on the doorstep in a goal-to-go scenario.
While sending your tight end on a fade route is clearly far from hard-hitting chalk talk, the simplicity behind this pre-snap recognition allows mismatches like Reed and Smith to take advantage. Once coordinators can correctly anticipate the type of coverage they’ll receive in a particular situation, they go to work by dialing up their favorite calls for their preferred matchups.
Simply due to the lack of consistent threat from Washington’s receivers in Pierre Garcon, Jamison Crowder, and DeSean Jackson, it’s fair to presume that these mismatch opportunities were few and far between for Washington and Reed. However, in Smith’s case with the Vikings, rest assured that those opportunities will be steady with opposing defenses keying on Jefferson, Thielen, and Dalvin Cook.
With Minnesota’s offensive star-power, it’d be a stretch to expect Smith to replicate the type of production that Reed had with Washington in ’15. Smith will likely be competing for the third spot in the Vikings’ passing-game hierarchy, along with K.J. Osborn and Dalvin Cook. But while the stats might not necessarily be there for Smith, his ability to consistently create mismatches against defenses that are focused on Jefferson and/or Thielen opens this offense up tremendously.
If the Super Bowl between the Rams and Cincinnati Bengals taught us anything, it’s how much that McVay and O’Connell’s offense relied on their ancillary skill guys. Once Odell Beckham Jr. left the game with a torn ACL in the first half, the Rams’ offense spiraled until the final drive. Already without Robert Woods and Tyler Higbee, LA had difficulty getting Kupp the ball because the Rams couldn’t force Cincinnati to take coverage away from their All-Pro receiver.
Having an offense rich in talent at the skill positions makes it nearly impossible for NFL defenses to consistently keep you down for 60 minutes.
Think of Sammy Watkins with the Kansas City Chiefs in 2019. Overshadowed by Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce in their high-flying offense, Watkins never wowed anybody with his statistics during his stint in the AFC West. But the Chiefs knew that, to make defenses pay, they had to have a guy who could be relied upon when opponents presented them with opportunities to do so. And on football’s biggest stage, Watkins showed exactly why NFL offenses need to have ancillary matchup-beaters in big spots.
O’Connell’s history in Washington with a player of Reed’s caliber certainly bodes well for Smith as he looks to bounce back after missing last season. And by playing in an offense that will allow him to draw favorable coverages due to Jefferson, Thielen, and Cook, the writing is on the wall for the former Alabama tight end to have a serious impact in critical moments throughout the 2022 season.
