Vikings

Where Is Adam Thielen? A Deep Dive

Photo Credit: Jim Rassol, The Palm via USA TODAY Sports

Statistically, this is the worst season of Adam Thielen‘s career. His 6.6 yards per target is the lowest since Thielen became a starter in 2016. His 47.3 yards per game is the second-lowest in that span. For a more advanced metric, his 1.2 yards per route run is the worst of his career by a significant margin. But these metrics can only tell you what is, they can’t explain the why or the how.

So, where is Adam Thielen?

It’s tempting to look at regressed stats and assume a regressed player, but that’s dangerous territory. Wide receivers, in particular, are susceptible to an array of factors entirely outside their control. One of those factors is a regression in play, though, so we can’t rule it out, either. We have to investigate Thielen’s play and ask a few questions. The first one you probably think of is whether or not Adam Thielen is getting open. And, well…

That compilation isn’t comprehensive, either, I just found those to be the most persuasive examples. Adam Thielen is getting open a lot, but for one reason or another, he hasn’t gotten the ball as much as that would suggest. Some of the reasons for that are benign: The progression looked at Justin Jefferson on many of these examples, and he was open. We’d be fools to ask Kirk Cousins to turn down an open Jefferson just to save Thielen’s stats.

Don’t get me wrong, this compilation includes some of the Vikings’ most electrifying highlights, so it’s far from a complaint. Rather, it’s an explanation. Multiple people can get open on a given play, but only one can get the ball. Sometimes Thielen should have gotten the ball, but didn’t. That can be because of an error by Cousins, including a few he called out himself. It could be caused by pressure, which is a conversation for another day. There’s a lot more going on in the grand scope of an offense than any single player’s contribution.

I’ve also pulled something of a trick on you. While I sincerely believe what that compilation tells you (Thielen is getting separation at a satisfactory rate), I didn’t show you what Thielen’s separation used to look like, nor did I contextualize these clips in the larger sample. I could have cherry-picked them. Unless you want to watch several hours of film with me (patreon.com/LukeBraunNFL if you do), you’ll have to take me on faith that this compilation isn’t dishonestly put together. Even if it is, that’s a lot of cherries for a six-game sample.

All that said, there still is some regression. In Thielen’s prime, he got more separation than he’s getting now. That shouldn’t be a surprise, and it hasn’t lowered to the point of being a problem. We have a long way to go before we start considering whether Thielen is still a good receiver. That point will come as it does for anyone, but we’re not there yet. But if you’re a curious person, you may ask what is contributing to the decline anyways. The first theory that probably popped into your mind is:

Speed

Is Thielen slower than he used to be? Almost certainly. If you asked any NFL player to run a 40-yard dash tomorrow, most of them would come in behind their original measurements by a significant margin. Athletes train for each specific combine drill in a way they wouldn’t during the season, and any athlete over about 27 is probably starting to lose some speed. Speed isn’t everything for a receiver, but it is important enough to investigate.

I should start by noting that the Vikings have chip-tracking data on Thielen’s speed, and we don’t have access to that with nearly as much precision. If Thielen is slow, they’ll have irrefutable evidence of that, and they know exactly how much speed he has.

With that in mind, here are a few plays that rely on Thielen’s speed. Instead of trying to judge by our eyes, think of the information the Vikings have. Think of how fast Thielen has to be to make this play work, and ask if he was indeed that fast.

If Thielen were slower, the Vikings wouldn’t have gotten a first down on the first shallow cross. The safety wouldn’t have had to take such a harsh angle on the second play, opening space for Thielen to cut underneath it. Marshon Lattimore wouldn’t have been out of phase on the final play, and a game-changing flag likely stays in the official’s pocket.

When we look at a receiver’s speed, we have to know what they’re using it for. In the NFL, cornerbacks are too fast for someone like Tyreek Hill to just run past them. If he ran straight lines all day, he wouldn’t be nearly as effective as he is now. Cornerbacks play with varying amounts of cushion to give themselves a head start against speedsters (maybe you’re frustrated at Vikings’ corners playing with too much).

The game within the game is how quickly a receiver can eat up a cornerback’s cushion and force them to start backpedaling to buy more time (or better, open the gate of their hips and start running full speed). If you can’t chew up the cushion fast enough, the cornerback can confidently sit on his heels and react to your route, wherever it breaks. This has not been a problem for Thielen. Instead of watching him on this compilation, watch the corner tasked with guarding him, and watch how he reacts. Was Thielen faster than that corner was prepared for or not?

The eagle-eyed cynics among you may notice a game missing from this section. I haven’t showed any clips from Week 2’s loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in the part about Thielen’s speed. That’s because the Eagles, mostly Avonte Maddox, ran step for step with him, undoing this entire thesis. Noah Igbinoghene had plenty of reps like this, though he committed the penalty that started the above compilation. Fact is, some corners can run with Thielen.

Now, Maddox ran a 4.39 in the 40-yard dash compared to Thielen’s 4.44. So Maddox was always going to be the faster of the two. However, Igbinoghene ran a 4.48 in 2020. Kindle Vildor ran a 4.44 as well, and both defensive backs looked faster than Thielen. So you could say he has, in fact, lost a step at 32 years old. It just hasn’t been enough of a step to ruin his utility.

We haven’t explained enough of Thielen’s statistical drop-off. Perhaps he’s lost some fraction of a step. Perhaps Jefferson is a black hole who eats at everyone else’s production. But you should still expect more than this. Jefferson was in Minnesota the last two years as well, and any drop in athleticism Thielen has experienced can only explain away so much. No, something else is happening. Vikings’ opponents just can’t stop doing one thing to Adam Thielen:

Holding

Thielen gets held an incredible amount. The Vikings have benefitted from 106 yards between defensive pass interference and defensive holding, which only scratches the surface of the impact this trend has had. It didn’t come out of nowhere. Rewind to Week 1, where the Green Bay Packers’ defense completely dissolved against Jefferson, primarily. Jefferson commanded so much attention from that week, nobody noticed what was happening to Thielen.

Philadelphia’s gameplan also focused on Jefferson, but even they proved that a physical style could dissuade Cousins from throwing at him, if not deny him separation entirely. It was almost too clear a pattern for the Detroit Lions, the Vikings’ next opponent. Detroit took this incredibly seriously, and it’s hard to blame them. It looked like there was a clear path to stopping Thielen, they just botched the execution.

I’ve never seen anything like this. In particular, Amani Oruwariye made a concerted effort to close space on Thielen downfield and then give him a bear hug. It’s so blatant and purposeful, and Oruwariye hardly even protested most of the flags. I have no choice but to conclude that Detroit did this on purpose and accepted the consequences. To their credit, they got away with it a lot and almost won the game.

A few of those plays resulted in key penalties that spurred the Vikings to a narrow victory. They limited Thielen’s stat line, but not his impact. The New Orleans Saints had a similar problem in London. They mugged Thielen a lot, resulting in more key penalties (on some admittedly questionable calls). But that’s the risk of playing this way. The Chicago Bears and Miami Dolphins appeared to move away from this extreme strategy and back to something more closely resembling Green Bay’s gameplan. Jefferson has gone over 100 yards in each of those games, once again pushing Thielen to the margins of the offense.

That’s not to say the holding has stopped, but rather that Thielen’s opponents have gotten better at getting away with it. Contrary to popular belief, cornerbacks aren’t prohibited from every form of downfield contact. There are two coaching points here that matter. First, if a corner’s head is turned, officials will allow a lot more contact under the impression that he is “playing the ball.”

Second, a cornerback has a right to stand his ground downfield. He doesn’t have to get out of the way if a receiver’s route path runs through him. You can abuse this by simply getting in the way and keeping your arms reasonably unextended. Think of it like drawing a charge in basketball, but the goal is to slow the receiver’s timing. Miami and Chicago both put on clinics for getting away with contact downfield, and Thielen struggled to fight through it.

So maybe the book is out on stopping Thielen. That raises a more existential question:

Is This a problem?

So, Thielen isn’t getting the looks he once got. Some of it is routine, the perils of life as an NFL wide receiver, but some of it isn’t. The best way to shut Thielen down came at a game-changing cost, and defenses can’t afford to dedicate more resources to defending him, what with that pesky Jefferson to contend with.

The way I see it, if defenses don’t have a speedster at cornerback, and don’t need that guy to defend Jefferson, they can shut down Thielen. That’s what Philadelphia had, and in a potential January rematch, the Vikings will have a real problem to solve. If you’re, say, the Arizona Cardinals, whose best corner, Byron Murphy, ran a 4.55 and will probably be stapled to Jefferson all day, you’ve got a real conundrum. Do you trust Marco Wilson to hang with Thielen one-on-one while your safeties are busy bracketing and robbing Jefferson? What about Trayvon Mullen on one hamstring?

Were I a member of the Minnesota Vikings, I’d make a point to tell the officials about Thielen’s holding problem before each game and ask them to keep a special eye on it. Resolving to mug Thielen down the field instead of trying to cover him straight-up is a risky world to live in. The men in zebra stripes could nullify anything good that happens for the defense on that play — and award the Vikings a free first down. Are you taking that gamble on third-and-16?

I’m perfectly happy letting defenses take this gamble. If Thielen draws 100 yards of pass interference yardage, but only 40 yards of real yardage, is that functionally different from a 140-yard day? A first down inside the red zone is the same situation whether you got there on a long completion or a long interference penalty. If defenses don’t think they can prevent the latter without risking the former, that means Thielen is a dangerous weapon. You just have to look at it a little more closely.

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Photo Credit: Jim Rassol, The Palm via USA TODAY Sports

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