Training camp was the deadline for pressing the panic button. With left tackle David Bakhtiari still physically unable to perform almost 600 days after his ACL injury, it’s reasonable to start wondering about his future in Green Bay — and in football altogether. The lineman will be 31 years old by the end of September.
The Packers face three questions regarding Bakhtiari. Will he ever come back? How well will he play if he comes back? And is that level worth the high price he commands? If any of these questions has a negative answer, 2022 may be Bakhtiari’s last year in Green Bay.
“Any time there’s an ACL, there can always be other complications,” said Bakhtiari in an interview with Cheesehead TV. “I had a little bit of my meniscus, which wasn’t a big deal. And I got a little bit of cartilage. There was a lot going on.
“I was sitting at about 30 to 35 ccs (cubic centimeters) of fluid in my knee. The only way I can describe it, it was like I had a water balloon in my knee. When you bend it, it shoots out everywhere, and the problem with that is it basically shuts off. Fluid gets into places. It’s just uncomfortable.”
First, it’s important to understand that all this concern may be an overreaction. The preseason PUP list allows a player to come back at any point. Therefore, Bakhtiari might return to practice as soon as next week, sometime during the camp, or be ready immediately before Week 1. But it’s been a year and a half since the knee injury, with multiple setbacks, and seven months since Bakhtiari’s appearance in the half game against the Detroit Lions. In hindsight, the Packers probably shouldn’t have had him out there in a meaningless contest.
Moreover, head coach Matt LaFleur has said that the Packers expected Bakhtiari to be ready for training camp, which didn’t happen.
Bakhtiari signed his most recent extension a month and a half before the injury, and the Packers have restructured it twice since to open cap space. Therefore, it would be virtually impossible to release or trade him now. The cap hit would jump from $13.4 million to $35.8 million. But things change next offseason.
There is no guaranteed money left for the Packers to pay. Therefore, the dead money would be exclusively prorated signing and restructure bonuses already paid that haven’t hit the cap yet. If the Packers decide to trade or release him in 2023, they would incur $23.1 million in dead money. However, the movement would open $6 million of cap space in 2023 and almost $33 million in 2024. That space would guarantee financial health for the final years of Aaron Rodgers‘ career and facilitate extensions with Elgton Jenkins, who would be the immediate replacement at left tackle, Rashan Gary, and Adrian Amos.
The other contractual option is for the Packers to keep Bakhtiari in 2023, hoping he can regain his old form. Then there would be another window to get out of the contract in 2024. If the Packers don’t restructure Bakhtiari again next offseason, the dead money in 2024 would be $11.5 million to $21.4 million in savings.
Obviously, nobody wants to part ways with a player who was a first-team All-Pro in 2020. But it will become a reality unless Bakhtiari can fully recover soon and return to his elite-level performance.
Left tackles are usually able to extend their careers well into their 30s. Trent Williams was a first-team All-Pro at 33, and Andrew Whitworth won the Super Bowl last season at 40. However, plenty of players start to decline after they turn 30. That happened with former Packers linemen T.J. Lang and Bryan Bulaga, both because of injuries.
Trying to read the tea leaves of Green Bay’s recent decisions, there are both concerning and encouraging signs. The concern is that the Packers decided not to add void years in the last Bakhtiari restructure, which keeps his dead money lower. However, the lack of veteran additions could mean the Packers might still trust Bakhtiari’s ability to be back soon.
For now, all Packers fans can do is hope that Bakhtiari gets healthy because his absence would result in a significant problem for the offense and lower its ceiling. The team would start the season with Yosh Nijman at left tackle and a battle for the right tackle spot between Sean Rhyan, Zach Tom, and Cole Van Lanen. The Packers might never see the high-level line with Bakhtiari and Jenkins together that they had planned.
