The Green Bay Packers looked like they were making Aaron Jones the running back of the future a year after taking A.J. Dillon in the second round. Jones signed a four-year, $48 million extension after the 2020 season. They effectively chose him over Corey Linsley, the center who eventually signed with the Los Angeles Chargers.
But Dillon carried the workload last season with 187 carries compared to Jones’ 171. For context, Jones missed two games, and he had six games where he dealt with injuries and was limited to fewer than 10 carries.
Going into next season, it’s no secret that the Packers will be short on offensive weapons, regardless of how many receivers they draft. As a result, Jones will continue to be more involved in the passing game.
Running backs with significant workloads tend to have injury issues just a few seasons into their career. It’s the nature of the position. Look at Todd Gurley, Saquon Barkley, and Christian McCaffrey. All three are used as the primary weapon on the field. Gurley looked like a Hall of Famer until he had multiple career-crippling injuries. Barkley and McCaffrey appear to be on the same track now because they are being used too heavily.
Therefore, the Packers will have to give fewer carries to Jones to be able to use him in the passing game, and Dillon will become the primary rushing threat. Jones has put up three-straight 1,000 all-purpose-yard seasons, the only running back in the NFL who has done that. Shared play time is the main reason he’s stayed healthy.
Looking at Dillon’s stats compared to Jones’, the main gripe is Dillon’s yards per carry average. Dillon averages 4.3 compared to Jones’ 4.7. But you can’t look at these stats without a major caveat. Dillon repeatedly finished out games when the Packers were ahead. Therefore, it is harder for him to maintain a high yards-per-carry average because the defense knows what’s coming. The offense has to overpower the defense for Dillon to rack up yardage late in games.
But Dillon is becoming a dominant back. He had 56 broken tackles last season off of his 187 carries. He isn’t afraid of contact, and he can run through defenders at his size.
Want a glimpse of Dillon’s potential? Look at his performance in Week 17 against the Minnesota Vikings. Dillon only had 14 carries for 63 yards, but he scored two touchdowns. Dillon ran through three defenders on his own to walk into the end zone for the first touchdown. On the other score, he moved the pile 10 yards to force himself past the goal line. He consistently overpowers other players, and I believe we will see more of this next year.
His physicality has made Dillon a Pro Football Focus darling. Dillon ranks second, only behind Jonathan Taylor, as the highest-graded running back in the NFL. Dillon graded out at 86.9. Taylor? 87.0.
The Packers gave Dillon a more significant role last year after Jamaal Williams signed with the Detroit Lions. Some people thought Dillon would get more playing time, but he still exceeded expectations. With major improvements to his play, we can likely see him grow into an even more prominent role in 2022.
Dillon got to five to six carries in the first three games before averaging 10-21 for the rest of the season. In addition to becoming the go-to guy in late-game situations, that shows that we have seen Matt Lafleur gain more trust in him throughout this past season.
Aaron Jones will have a massive role in the offense for the Packers in 2022, but I believe we will see A.J. Dillon cement himself as the featured running back who gets the majority of the touches on the ground because of Jones’ role in the passing game.
