With another winning week under our belt, we move on to Week 6, a slate that features a few big dogs and a bunch of tantalizing short dogs. Since my rule for this blog is to only consider underdogs of at least three points, I had to cross off the Seattle Seahawks, New Orleans Saints, and Jacksonville Jaguars — all of whom I like.
Here are my three plays of the week:
Dolphins +3 vs. Vikings
Yes, I’m aware that the Miami Dolphins are down to its third-string quarterback, Skylar Thompson, but this is still a tough spot for the Purple, who have not won a game there since 1976. Former Minnesota Vikings QB Teddy Bridgewater has cleared concussion protocol and will be the backup, ready to go if Thompson implodes.
Miami’s defense is a mess, coming off a 40-point explosion by the Jets. But they play virtually all zone and love to blitz — and Kirk Cousins struggles against both. The Vikings are 4-1, but they have narrowly avoided losses against mediocre teams at home and now must deal with the heat and a proud, embarrassed Miami team. I say the Dolphins right the ship against the Vikes.
Falcons +4 ½ vs. 49ers
The Atlanta Falcons are the only team that has covered all five games, and they have what it takes to keep this one close against a banged-up San Francisco 49ers team. Okay, banged up is putting it mildly: They could be down 10, yes 10, starters for this game.
Nick Bosa will miss the game with a groin injury, and a number of guys listed as questionable could be held off the fake turf in Atlanta, giving them a chance to heal before next week’s collision with the Kansas City Chiefs. The Falcons should be able to put points on the board with their strong running game and Marcus Mariota’s ability to use his legs. If the Niners win, it will be a tight one.
Jets +7 ½ at Packers
Okay, this one hurts a little, but if you happened to read my preview blog on the Packers page, you know I think the Jets match up well against a Packers team returning from a long trip to London with its tail between its legs. Offensively, the Jets will hammer rookie Breece Hall early and often to move the chains and keep the Packers offense on the sidelines.
The Jets offense is gaining confidence behind Zach Wilson and faces a defense that has yet to put things together. Meanwhile, the Jets will likely stack the box to keep Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon from beating them, figuring their talented CBs have the edge on the Pack’s average receiving corps. Green Bay has yet to lose back to back regular season games under Matt LaFleur and that will likely continue. But this feels like a three or four point winning Packer margin to me.
Last Week: 2-1
Season: 10-4-1
