The (Under) Dogs Are Barking! Week 7 Edition

Photo Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

Hard to believe it’s already Week 7, and it’s just as difficult to believe that I have yet to have a losing week, 12-5-1 for the season. Underdogs have hit at a historic rate this season, and this week features a lot of significant dogs, with zero games matching teams with winning records.

Texans +7 at Raiders

There are no scenarios where the one-win Las Vegas Raiders should be favored by a touchdown right now. Yes, expectations were higher, and they’re coming off their bye. But Lovie Smith’s Houston Texans play hard for 60 minutes week after week and can hammer a weak Raiders run defense with rookie Dameon Pierce. Did I mention they’re 4-1 against the spread this season, while the Raiders are 2-3? Throw in the fact that 90% of the tickets are coming in on the popular Raiders, while over 60% of the money is on Houston. That’s a good sign. The Raiders will win their second game, but not by seven.

Seahawks +5 at Chargers

I love everything about this matchup for Seattle. They’ll have a home-field advantage, their offense can keep pace with the points the Chargers are likely to score, and the underdog has hit the last six times these teams have met. LA still looks nothing like a Super Bowl contender, largely due to key injuries on the OL, the DL and the perennially injured Keenan Allen. The Geno Smith redemption tour rolls on against a banged up Chargers team, coming off an overtime game on Monday night. Wouldn’t shock me if the Seahawks win outright.

Commanders +4 ½ vs. Packers

What? Picking against the Pack two straight weeks? This is a crossroads game for Green Bay with a primetime game looming at the Bills, who will be well rested. The Packers have a few things working against them:

  1. Washington has had a few extra days to prepare.
  2. They won’t have Carson Wentz, who’s on IR with a broken finger. Taylor Heinicke figures to inject some life into the passing game, with his ability to move around, plus he’s a better leader than Wentz.
  3. The Commanders can run the ball with Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson against a lousy Packers run D. That opens up play action for Heineke, which he loves.
  4. With David Bakhtiari downgraded to questionable on Saturday, an overwhelmed offensive line gets even weaker against the top-notch Washington pass rush.

I make this line Packers -1: they’ll be lucky to escape with a win.

Last Week: 2-1

Season: 12-5-1

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