Timberwolves

Why Isn't Anthony Edwards Shooting More?

Photo Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

Since Karl-Anthony Towns went down with his calf injury, the Minnesota Timberwolves have been treading water about as well as you could hope for. They have gone 3-3 with impressive wins over the Memphis Grizzlies and the Indiana Pacers. In those wins, the defense has been more effective in KAT’s absence. That’s likely because the defensive scheme has become simplified with only one big. KAT had the most to learn on defense due to playing a different position this year.

However, in the losses, it became readily apparent that the Timberwolves missed KAT’s dominant presence on offense. Despite shooting less efficiently from three-point range than ever in his career at 32.5%, he’s also shooting a career-high from inside the arc at 61.8% while scoring 20.8 points per game and averaging 5.3 assists.

Without KAT, the Wolves need to find a way to create offense that is effective enough to beat the best teams in the league without one of their best offensive players. D’Angelo Russell has stepped up in a big way so far, looking for his shot more aggressively while not forcing as many out-of-flow heat checks. In the last 6 games, DLo is averaging 24.5 points while shooting 44.7% from three and 54.5% from the field. He also nearly single-handedly beat the Pacers by shooting a perfect 7 of 7 from the field in the fourth quarter with six made threes.

However, when an all-NBA player’s injury leaves a hole in your roster, you need more than one player to step up meaningfully. Anthony Edwards has asserted himself in KAT’s absence, especially on defense. Ant has averaged four steals in the last six games. He has also looked more attentive during his off-ball defense, making good on his word of trying to improve in that area.

Offensively, though, it feels like Ant’s desire to put his stamp on a game tends to ebb and flow depending on the quarter, and that often hurts the team. In Minnesota’s recent loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder, Edwards started hot and scored 18 first-half points on 13 shots. He also got to the line for 6 free throws and was the only Wolves starter with a positive +/-. Despite this, Ant only took one shot in the fourth quarter when the Wolves needed someone to step up and score some points. Ant mostly played great in the game, and his box score was eye-catching. However, any good team needs their best offensive player to take shots in the 4th quarter when the game is on the line. Otherwise, you’re not giving yourself the best chance to win.

In their loss against the Portland Trail Blazers on Monday night, Ant only took 16 shots on a night when they desperately needed an offensive punch. Damian Lillard tied his career high of 11 threes in that game. Don’t get me wrong, 16 isn’t a low number of shot attempts, but it is below Ant’s season average of 17.9. Additionally, in the 6 games without KAT, Edwards has remained around his season average at 18 attempts per game.

As a point of reference, there are currently 17 players who take more shot attempts per game than Ant, including Anfernee Simons (18.8) and Keldon Johnson (18.4). Dillon Brooks takes only 1.5 fewer shots per game than Ant, despite shooting 5% worse from the field than Ant at 40.4%. Until KAT returns, Edwards is indisputably the most dynamic scorer the Timberwolves have. As a result, he should be shooting 20 times a game. He is the most important part of filling the scoring hole KAT left.

It’s not that the Wolves don’t have other players who can score. However, every team only gets so many shot attempts per game. Thus, in theory, you want your best offensive player to take as many attempts as possible without burning themselves out. They have the best chance to score or collapse the defense and get someone else open. This oversimplifies how heliocentric offenses work, but it is the leading principle of many successful teams.

The Dallas Mavericks are the current best example of a heliocentric team. They run most of their offense through Luka Doncic, who leads the league in shot attempts per game at 22.8. The Mavs may be struggling, and there is much debate surrounding whether heliocentrism is ultimately the best way to win in the hyper-talented modern NBA. However, we know that heliocentric teams have won in the past. Last year, Doncic led the league in attempts per game, and the Mavericks went to the Western Conference finals. Moreover, Michael Jordan led the league in total shot attempts nine times throughout his career and won six championships.

I’m not saying Ant is as good as Doncic or Jordan or that he deserves as much of a green light to shoot as them all the time. However, it helps your team when your best players shoot a lot. It’s not that you don’t want Tim Hardaway Jr. to take shots when he’s open; you just don’t want him to take shots away from Luka when Luka gives you the best chance to score. Similarly, you don’t want any Wolves role players to take away shots from Ant when he most often has the best chance to score of anyone on the team.

I’m not suggesting that the Timberwolves play to the level of heliocentrism the Mavericks do all season. Ant may soon be ready for that kind of usage. But he is still very young and likely needs to become a better distributor before becoming one of the great heliocentric players like Doncic, Jordan, or LeBron James. Still, it would make sense for Ant to take on a higher usage role while KAT is out.

It’s hard to tell how much of Ant’s drops in shot attempts happen as a result of his own choice versus the direction of the coaching staff. While I’m sure Chris Finch has had conversations with Ant about stepping up in KAT’s absence, in some games, it seems like they could do more to inspire confidence in Ant. That’s especially true in a game like Monday’s where Ant hit all three of his threes but didn’t finish well or get calls inside. If he had been encouraged to lean into what was working and been more assertive taking threes, it might have paid off in a win — or at least less bad of a loss.

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