On the heels of another winning week, we move on to Week 11, an unusual slate with seven dogs of a touchdown or more. I’ve identified three of those super dogs that I’m pretty sure will get the job done.
Bears +7½ at Lions
This line opened at ten and has been dropping like a rock all week as money has come in on Chicago. I still like the Bears at this number for a number of reasons. First, I’m a sucker for divisional dogs. Second, Chicago’s offense figures to get a boost from Justin Fields’ return. His legs should come in handy against the Lions’ aggressive pass rush.
Chicago’s defense has been sneakily competent over the last month. They’re allowing just 3.2 yards per rush this season, which is tops in the league. The pass defense is not as stout. However, the addition of Montez Sweat has given life to their pass rush.
The only stat that worries me here is that Jared Goff has covered 11 straight NFC North games. That streak has to end at some point, right? With a big Thanksgiving game lurking four days later against the hated Pack, maybe the Lions deliver a turkey this Sunday.
Panthers +10½ vs. Cowboys
I don’t expect Dallas to also be looking ahead to their Turkey Day game against Washington, but I also don’t expect them to blast the Panthers. Sure, rookie QB Bryce Young looks very shaky so far, and he’s probably seeing Micah Parsons in his sleep this week, but they’ve been pretty competitive at home, including a win over the surprising Texans a few weeks back.
This line is inflated, thanks to the Boys’ popularity and their blowout win last week. They’ve never handled success well and rarely string impressive performances together. Dak and CeeDee are in the zone right now, but the Panthers expect to get corner Jaycee Horn back this week and Brian Burns, their best player. Burns would give the pass rush the bite it’s been lacking. Panthers-Cowboys is my favorite game of the week – look for Carolina to hang around in this one.
Jets +7 at Bills
Buffalo’s season is circling the drain. They fired their offensive coordinator after their flat Monday night loss. Josh Allen looks lost. Oh, and on deck for the Bills: road games in Kansas City and Philly and a home date with the Cowboys. You and I know they’re not making the postseason this year.
They may know that too, but that doesn’t mean they’ll be able to take out all of their frustrations on the Jets. They’re working on a short week, which won’t give the new OC a lot of time to tweak the offense. Buffalo’s offense is broken, and the last thing they want to see is the ferocious Jets defense. New York shut down the Bills in Week 1 while Aaron Rodgers was limping around the sidelines.
Feels like a low-scoring game on a cold afternoon in Buffalo. Seven of the last ten games in this series have been one-score games. The Bills will likely escape, but they’re not covering the seven points.
Last Week: 2-1
Season: 16-13-1
