We’re coming off a historically strong week for the favorites. Had the Vikings covered on Monday night, a record 13 faves would have hit in Week 12. That’s how I’m explaining away my 1-2 performance last week, which has me barely on the right side of 50% for the season.
It’s on to Week 13, and I have a feeling the dogs will have their day. The Seahawks got things started on Thursday night. Let’s see if these puppies can follow suit.
Panthers +5 at Buccaneers
It’s not always fun to back some of these dogs, but there are reasons to believe Carolina can make this one competitive. Frank Reich’s dismissal should prompt some changes to the offense that will benefit QB Bryce Young. Look for the Panthers to mix in more RPOs, get Young out of the pocket, and give him a chance to show that he’s not a colossal bust.
They’re facing a Tampa Bay team whose defense has regressed, ranked 29th since Week 7. It’s also dealing with a ton of injuries: four starters at LB and CB missed practice on Thursday.
Bucs coach Todd Bowles is not profitable as a favorite, hitting only 32% of the time, and Baker Mayfield is not much better. Plus, Mayfield is dealing with an ankle injury. This is just too many points for the Bucs to lay, and the Panthers figure to get that boost we typically see in a team’s first game after a coaching change.
Commanders +9 ½ vs. Dolphins
Why wouldn’t I back a team with the worst pass defense in the NFL against the high-flying Dolphins? Well, they have a few things working in their favor this week. For one thing, they fired DC Jack Del Rio, so the defensive players may play a lot looser and freer. Despite shipping off some prized assets at the trade deadline, there is still talent on that side of the ball.
An expected rainy day and muddy conditions could negate the massive speed advantage the Dolphins enjoy against every team they play. It could also cause turnover-happy Tua to give Washington a couple of extra possessions.
Sam Howell can look great one minute and lost the next. But he’s auditioning every week to try to prove he deserves to be back next year and figures to be motivated against a contender, one that lost defensive star Jaelan Phillips last week. Washington is Miami’s last road game until New Year’s Eve. I think they’ll be dreaming about four straight weeks in South Beach just a little too much and get caught up in an ugly one-score game.
Packers +6 vs. Chiefs
I tend to stay away from Packer games because I follow them so closely, but I really like this spot for them this week. And no, I’m not getting carried away by last week’s Thanksgiving Day surprise.
The Chiefs burned me last week despite falling into a two-touchdown hole in Las Vegas, but they continue to be a team that does not often cover as favorites of more than a field goal, especially outside their division.
The Packers return home after a ten-day break, brimming with confidence and maybe just a little bit healthier, as their two starting safeties are on track to return. They may also get Jaire Alexander and De’Vondre Campbell back on the field — both of them have been practicing this week. The Packers have injury concerns on offense with AJ Dillon and Jayden Reed missing time this week, but that unit seems to have different guys stepping up each week.
The question is whether Jordan Love is ready to handle Steve Spagnuolo’s blitz-happy defense, and I say he is. KC may have next week’s visit from Josh Allen and the Bills on their minds, too. Not ruling out a Packers upset here, but I’d be very surprised if they can’t keep it close.
Last Week: 1-2
Season: 18-17-1
