No two ways about it, it was an ugly week. There were a couple of frisky dogs last week, but I missed them (shame on me for not having faith in the Browns). The late safety Mac Jones took guaranteed my first winless week of the season. Oh well, on to Week 7.
This is a tough week, with fewer games and a lot of short lines. But here are three puppies I have my eyes on:
Bears +3 vs. Raiders
Yes, I’m backing Tyson Bagent, an undrafted rookie QB from a D2 school making his first start. I admit, I had a hard time finding three dogs this week, and this was my final choice. This pick is more about fading a Raiders team that is due for a flat performance.
Vegas will also start a backup QB, with either veteran Brian Hoyer or rookie Aidan O’Connell getting the nod. Chicago was feisty against the Vikings last week — the fumble and scoop and score was the difference in the game. Otherwise, they played the Purple even, even after Justin Fields left the game.
I see a low-scoring, ugly game. And I see the Bears finding a way to pick up their second win in the last 12 months against a Raiders team that doesn’t know how to handle success.
Chargers +5½ at Chiefs
If you have followed this blog for a while, you know there are a couple of teams I always like when they’re in the underdog role and LA is one of them. (The Titans are the other). One thing about the Chargers: when they lose, they rarely get blown out. They haven’t lost by more than three points all season.
These divisional rivals have played nothing but close games lately. The Chiefs defense is legit, but the Chargers have the weapons and offensive balance to put points on the board. KC is 14-27 when favored by more than three the last three seasons, and extra rest hasn’t helped them, either.
Look for Justin Herbert and the Chargers to keep it close, like always.
Vikings +7 vs. 49ers
I’m backing Kirk Cousins in a prime time game? I don’t even know myself anymore. Actually, the Vikes have been better in night games lately, and I think this line is inflated just a bit, since the Niners are coming off their first loss of the season.
San Fran comes into this one with injury concerns to key players. As of right now, we don’t know Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams‘ statuses. The extra day of rest will no doubt help, but it’s hard to believe any of them will be close to 100% for this one.
I understand that Brian Flores’ defense in no way resembles Jim Schwartz’s defense in Cleveland, and Brock Purdy will likely be a lot more comfortable on Monday night. But I also think Minnesota’s offense will have a better understanding of how to operate without Justin Jefferson. They will turn to the quick passing game to offset the mighty 49ers pass rush.
Combine a banged up Niners team with a second straight road game, and I say Minnesota keeps it close in a low-scoring affair.
Last Week: 0-3
Season: 9-9
