Locks
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Charleston/UNC Wilmington 1st Half Over 68.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on FloSports
The style, pace, and efficiency of Charleston’s offense should be on display once again here, as they continue to create high-scoring first halves. No team so far has seemed able to slow Charleston down or dictate a style of their own, and I don’t see it happening here either. Even though Wilmington is one of the slower-paced teams in the country, they still have a very efficient offense that should hang with the Cougars early.
The Seahawks are also one of the higher-scoring teams in first halves on their home floor, averaging 38 points per game. That’s nothing compared to Charleston, though, especially when the Cougars are on the road, as they lead the country in first-half scoring for away games at 42.5 points on average. I see Charleston maintaining their role as the pace-setter here against a tough conference opponent, and that will push this first half over the total.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Baylor/West Virginia Over 147.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+
I didn’t expect both of these teams to start 0-3 in conference play, but it’s certainly not offense that’s holding them back. With Baylor 16th and West Virginia 35th in the country for offensive efficiency, they’re both more than capable of scoring on anyone.
But the defense just hasn’t been there for either team, which is certainly uncharacteristic for them but should fuel plenty of points tonight. Both teams are set up to attack those defensive weaknesses, with Baylor 19th in 3-point attempts and West Virginia just 143rd in 3-point percentage defense. Conversely, the Mountaineers are 20th in floor percentage, while the Bears are just 113th in opponent floor percentage.
These teams also can’t guard without fouling, ranking 262nd and 309th in fouls per game. But they both are top-20 nationally at getting to the line, so bonus points from the charity stripe will pad the scoring. Easy points and poor defense are a great combination, and I see that sending this game over the total.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Lafayette/Navy Over 128.5 (-110; Odds via FanDuel): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+
I’m essentially betting Navy overs blind at this point, as they continue to be lined according to a style of play that just isn’t materializing. It’s why they’re the best team in the country for cashing overs at 13-2 on the season, and this total is the lowest they’ve seen yet. I can understand why, as Lafayette is one of the slowest teams in the country with pretty poor shooting ability. But I think it’ll be bad defense from both schools that gets this over the total.
Navy’s defense, rated 316th in the country, has been their biggest problem this season. They’re particularly terrible at defending the three, which is the one thing that Lafayette is decent at on offense. The Leopards launch the 6th-most shots from deep in the country, and they should get those to drop at a much higher rate against the Midshipmen tonight. But Navy is now up to 5th in 3-point shooting percentage, and should continue that against a poor Lafayette defense. With those shots dropping, pace is going to matter a lot less, and I see it leading to Navy getting over another low number.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Utah Valley St. EVEN @ Cal Baptist (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN+
I was hoping to get Utah Valley at an underdog price here, with odds makers mistakenly factoring in home court that doesn’t matter in the WAC. But I’ll settle for the pick-em in a game where the Wolverines are set up well to continue their success. This Mark Madsen-led squad (yeah, that Mark Madsen) is extremely tough and has been coached up very well. That’s particularly true on the defensive end, with Utah Valley 36th in the country for defensive rating.
That’s what should carry them here against a Cal Baptist team that simply can’t shoot or score. The Lancers are 300th in scoring and 301st in shooting percentage this season. That’s a bad matchup for them against the Wolverines, who are 16th in opponent effective field goal percentage. Utah Valley has already knocked off and hung with several top teams in the country, and own one of the best ATS records around. After two tough conference road wins last week, I see them getting another tonight behind their excellent defense.
Degenerates
NBA Rudy Gobert Over 29.5 Points+Rebounds (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 6:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North
This is a game for Gobert to dominate inside if he wants to continue his current run of quality performances. The Pistons are on a back-to-back with travel here, after getting destroyed in Philadelphia last night. They’re also very thin up front, with injuries to Jalen Duren and Isaiah Stewart, so the opportunity for both boards and buckets will be there for Stifle Tower.
And with Anthony Edwards questionable, the scoring load will need to be spread out to others like Gobert, who has averaged 34.7 on this prop the past 3 games. The Wolves have an opportunity to continue their strong January and atone for their last loss, and I see that bringing good things for Gobert in the box score.
Tiny Nick is 1013-870 ATS (+82.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
