Locks
NBA (0.75 Unit) Milwaukee Bucks -2.5 1st Quarter @ Indiana Pacers (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 6:00 PM CT on Bally Sports IN
This line doesn’t look like it’s where it will finish by tip-off, with a lot of injury questions for both teams, but a far gloomier picture for Indiana. With questionable tags on Myles Turner, Aaron Nesmith, and Andrew Nembhard for the Pacers, their injury situation has the potential to get ugly. With Giannis Antetokounmpo also questionable but deemed likely to play, plus Khris Middleton back in the fold, Milwaukee gets a sizable edge in the health department.
Not that they’d necessarily need it to jump on the Pacers early again tonight like they did just 11 days ago. Indiana was healthy for that game while the Bucks were without Giannis and Middleton, but that didn’t stop Milwaukee from racing to a 6-point lead after a quarter. The Bucks love fast starts, especially on the road where they lead the league in average first quarter margin. Indiana is dead last in that category both overall and at home, so this is a great spot to beat injury news and back the Bucks early.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Steph Curry Over 4.5 Made Three-Pointers (+110; Odds via DraftKings): 9:00 PM CT on NBATV
This is mostly a narrative play for me, as I expect Curry to be extra motivated for tonight’s game. After being ejected on Wednesday for throwing his mouth guard, I suspect he will come back with a vengeance for this national TV game. He has a great opponent to light it up from deep against, as the Toronto Raptors rank 28th in 3-point percentage allowed. Curry averages 4.9 makes from deep on the season and 5.1 at home, so to get a plus-juice return in this situation looks like great value in my opinion.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Youngstown St Team Total Over 80.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN2
I’m glad to see Youngstown State getting airtime on ESPN so more people can watch the country’s most efficient offense. The Penguins lead the nation with 1.142 points per possession, and are even up to 28th in the KenPom offensive rankings that are adjusted for opponent. They’re also 10th in overall scoring at 82.2 points per game, which rises to 84.7 at home.
So all I’m asking Youngstown to do here is score at a level slightly below their average, and to do it against an extremely soft opponent. Oakland ranks 343rd in points allowed and 336th in defensive efficiency this season. They also allowed Youngstown to run it up on them just two weeks ago, surrendering 85 points at home. I expect the Penguins to be motivated to put on a similar show for the TV cameras tonight, so this isolated over should cash with ease.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1046-893 ATS (+86.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
