Locks
MLB (0.5 Unit) Kansas City Royals Team Total Under 3.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:45 PM CT on Bally Sports MW
As the league’s lowest-scoring road team, I’m always looking to pick on Kansas City when they’re away from home. The Royals this month have averaged 3.4 runs per game on the road, and are due to revert to form after yesterday’s 7-run outburst. They’ll face a much tougher matchup on the mound today, with Miles Mikolas looking to continue his strong stretch. The Cardinal righty has a 1.98 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over his past 6 starts, and now faces the meek KC lineup. The Royals are bottom-5 in MLB for most offensive categories against righties in general, so I see them struggling to score again in this one.
MLB (1 Unit) Atlanta Braves Team Total Over 5 (-120; Odds via Caesars): 8:40 PM CT on NBCS-CA
Congratulations to Oakland for snapping an 11-game losing streak yesterday, but today is a new day and the A’s still stink. The result yesterday was actually fairly predictable considering Atlanta’s brutal travel spot off Sunday Night Baseball back home. But a rested and refreshed Braves lineup due for positive regression is a scary thing, and they should get it here.
Putting that Atlanta lineup up against a lefty starter in JP Sears is especially scary with them leading MLB in weighted runs created versus lefties. The Braves also lead baseball in batting average and on-base percentage against lefties, important against such a bad defensive team in Oakland. Sears has had some strong starts recently but Atlanta is a far different task. He also doesn’t pitch particularly deep in games, so even a strong start can be thrown away by the league’s worst bullpen to help Atlanta cash this team over.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1309-1148 ATS (+72.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
