Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) Miami Heat/Denver Nuggets Over 215.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ABC
This is just too big of a downward adjustment off Thursday’s total, which closed 5 points higher than where this line opened. Maybe the biggest reason Game 1 flopped offensively was that Miami appeared to have left their legs in South Beach. It’s understandable after a battle in the East finals and having to travel to elevation on short rest. But they’ve had time to rest and adjust now since Thursday, and I think the result is better shooting.
Neither team could find the range in that game though, with both teams shooting around 30% on their 3-pointers that were graded as wide open. Miami has too many quality shooters and Denver is too good of a shooting team overall for that to happen again. If the Heat have their legs back I’d also expect them to play more in transition like they have all postseason, which should also help get this Game 2 over the total.
Bonus Bet (Degenerate Only): Miami Heat +8.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)
I laid it with Denver on Thursday, and I’m flip-flopping to Miami tonight. It’s important to set aside what you just saw last, which was Denver taking advantage of Miami’s fatigue. If the Heat do have more energy today and can knock down their shots, this game should look more like the late stages of Thursday when Miami closed the gap. Also keep in mind that every Game 2 for the Nuggets thus far has seen them trailing in the 4th quarter, so this should be closer than anticipated.
Bonus Prop Bets:
(1 Unit) Nikola Jokic Over 51.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
It’s below his playoff average again. Enough said; I’m jumping in.
(0.5 Unit) Nikola Jokic Over 11.5 Assists (+115; Odds via DraftKings)
It’s not as juicy a return on this elevator prop as it was on Thursday, but at plus money I have to take another shot. He’s just too good a passer and so willing to spread it around, plus I expect more of those passes to result in buckets as Denver collectively shoots better tonight.
(0.75 Unit) Gabe Vincent Over 13.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
Vincent was Miami’s lone effective perimeter scorer in Game 1. While I expect him to have more help tonight, this is still a number he clears regularly when healthy and getting minutes.
(0.75 Unit) Michael Porter Jr Over 8.5 Rebounds (+110; Odds via DraftKings)
The number has been adjusted up, but only by a single board after he collected 13 of them on Thursday. His size advantage should keep him thriving on the glass in this series.
(0.75 Unit) Michael Porter Jr Over 23.5 Points+Rebounds (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
It was a horrible shooting night for Denver in general and MPJ specifically from deep. He should continue to get open looks due to Miami’s scheme, and knocking down a few more will add scoring to his rebounding for this prop.
(0.25 Unit) Michael Porter Jr Over 3.5 Made Three’s (+165; Odds via DraftKings)
I’ll play this elevator prop at a solid return because I think all those open looks are going to start falling in a wave. After a 2-for-11 night beyond the arc, expect a couple more to drop and cash this juicy return.
(0.5 Unit) Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Over 9.5 Points (-125; Odds via DraftKings)
KCP was frustrated in Game 1, but I expect a bounce back here. Usually when teams try to adjust to the Jokic/Murray tandem tearing them up it leaves opportunity for KCP, and I think he makes the most of it.
(0.5 Unit) Bruce Brown Over 10.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
Brown was one of the few players in the entire game on Thursday with a good shooting night. He didn’t get his usual amount of minutes though, which have typically been higher in Game 2’s this postseason. Continued good shooting and more opportunity will get him over this number tonight.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1317-1156 ATS (+71.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
