Usually, Akayleb Evans’ pick attempt that ended up in Joshua Palmer’s hands would be the most unlucky play in a game. Evans had a good read on Justin Herbert’s underthrown deep ball. Even if he couldn’t get a grip on it, the ball would typically fall to the ground after it hit his hands. That’s how gravity works. Instead, it bounced off Evans’ hands, then his helmet, and Palmer reeled it in for the game-winning touchdown.
But the Los Angeles Chargers sealed the game, 28-24, after Kirk Cousins’ first-and-goal pass slipped through T.J. Hockenson’s gloves. Nick Niemann tipped it, and Kenneth Murray Jr. intercepted it in the end zone*. The Vikings are 0-3, losing each game by one score after winning 11 one-score games last year.
“They all sting,” Hockenson said. “When you make mistakes and things just don’t go your way, that’s a hard thing to go home to.”
Regression isn’t supposed to work this way. Regression means that luck will balance back to average, not that pure good luck will turn into pure bad luck. Of course, the Vikings aren’t making their own fortune, either. They went 1/4 in the red zone, turned the ball over twice, and mismanaged the clock. Ultimately, they played a similar game to the one they played 10 days ago in Philadelphia.
“I feel like it’s been like that the past three games,” said Justin Jefferson. “It’s tough we’re still hurting ourselves and shooting ourselves in the foot. We have to do better as players by executing the plays, not having any pre-snap opportunities, and not turning the ball over.”
The Vikings put up numbers in the loss. They had 475 total yards, the same as LA, and more balance. Minnesota passed for 345 yards and ran for 130. Cousins went 32/50 for 367 yards, and Alexander Mattison ran for 93 yards on 20 carries. Jefferson had 149 yards on seven receptions, finishing one yard short of being the first player to go three-straight games with 150 yards. Hockenson had 78 yards and a fumble. Cousins didn’t target Jordan Addison until the second half, but he finished with six catches for 52 yards.
Only 11.5% of 0-2 teams have reached the playoffs since 1990. The odds for 0-3 teams are even worse. Ninety-nine teams have gone 0-3 since 2002; the 2018 Houston Texans are the only one that made the playoffs. They lost to the New England Patriots and Tennessee Titans on the road and to the New York Giants at home to start the season. Then they beat the Indianapolis Colts and Dallas Cowboys in overtime to start a nine-game winning streak. Houston finished 11-5 that year and lost in the first round of the playoffs.
“It’s a long football season, and we’re going to be here in December and January talking to you guys, and this will feel like a long time ago,” said Cousins. “We’ve got a lot of opportunities up ahead.”
Kevin O’Connell told his team that he’s been part of a group that lost three straight games and won the Super Bowl. The 2021 Los Angeles Rams started 7-1, then lost to the Tennessee Titans, San Francisco 49ers, and Green Bay Packers. The Rams won their next five regular-season games and a championship, earning O’Connell his job with the Vikings. Minnesota has winnable games at the Carolina Panthers and Chicago Bears in two of the next three weeks, but they must play the Kansas City Chiefs in between. It’s a long season, but they must make up ground quickly.
“We are going to continue to do is continue to find a way to amend, coaches included, starting with myself, to do a little bit more, find a way to do a little bit more,” O’Connell said. “I believe in this team.”
Regression alone didn’t hurt the Vikings on Sunday. They didn’t capitalize on red-zone opportunities. They took 29 seconds between converting on fourth-and-five and the fateful throw to Hockenson, partially because of a communication error. And they continue to turn the ball over. The defense also didn’t get enough pressure on Justin Herbert, who finished 40/47 for 405 yards and three touchdowns. Keenan Allen had 215 yards receiving and a touchdown pass. And Minnesota didn’t capitalize on the Chargers taking 12 penalties for 94 yards.
Ultimately, the Vikings had opportunities to win on Sunday, as they have in every game they’ve played. But they didn’t do enough in the moments that mattered and find themselves in a 0-3 hole. The 2021 Rams may have lost three straight games, but they had banked seven wins. Minnesota hasn’t won a one-score game after winning 11 of them last season.
*An earlier version of this story said Murray tipped the pass and Niemann intercepted it. We regret the error.
