Expectations continue to soar as Justin Jefferson embarks on his fourth trip around the NFL’s sun. The 2022 NFL Offensive Player of the Year is arguably the league’s biggest non-quarterback star, and he’s the consensus No. 1 player in fantasyland this season. According to Underdog Fantasy, Jefferson’s current 1.2 average draft position tells you everything you need to know about what the football world thinks of Jefferson’s chances to put up video game-like numbers in 2023.
Since entering the league in 2020, the former LSU Tiger has seen his targets, receptions, and receiving yards spike with each season.
- 2020
- 125 targets
- 88 receptions
- 1,400 receiving yards
- 2021
- 167 targets
- 108 receptions
- 1,616 receiving yards
- 2022
- 184 targets
- 128 receptions
- 1,809 receiving yards
It’s only natural to presume that this trend continues in 2023, right? Even though Jefferson led the NFL in receptions and receiving yards last year, the expectation should be for Jefferson to do it again this coming season.
Here’s why:
The 2023 Minnesota Vikings will have no choice to keep their foot on the gas pedal, offensively. Although Brian Flores should (hopefully) bring this defense from truly embarrassing to below average, the talent on the defensive side of the ball simply isn’t there. Flores must overcome these talent deficiencies by implementing his blitz-happy defense, which theoretically would allow the defense to play on their terms. Conversely, Ed Donatell had a passive bend-but-don’t-break philosophy, which invited opposing offenses to accumulate big yardage and light up scoreboards.
But what happens to blitz-happy defenses when they fail to create the necessary havoc for opposing offenses? They get gashed. And in today’s NFL, most quarterbacks experience better passing efficiency when defensive coordinators decide to blitz them.
Take a look at these yards per attempt against the blitz and when they weren’t blitzed from last season, per Pro Football Focus:
- Tua Tagovailoa
- 9.6 yards per attempt against the blitz
- 8.6 yards per attempt when not blitzed
- Ryan Tannehill
- 9.5 yards per attempt against the blitz
- 7.0 yards per attempt when not blitzed
- Deshaun Watson
- 8.9 yards per attempt against the blitz
- 5.8 yards per attempt when not blitzed
- Andy Dalton
- 8.9 yards per attempt against the blitz
- 7.0 yards per attempt when not blitzed
- Jared Goff
- 8.1 yards per attempt against the blitz
- 7.3 yards per attempt when not blitzed
- Jacoby Brissett
- 8.1 yards per attempt against the blitz
- 6.6 yards per attempt when not blitzed
- Taylor Heinicke
- 8.0 yards per attempt against the blitz
- 6.8 yards per attempt when not blitzed
- Geno Smith
- 7.9 yards per attempt against the blitz
- 7.3 yards per attempt when not blitzed
- Russell Wilson
- 7.9 yards per attempt against the blitz
- 7.1 yards per attempt when not blitzed
- Matthew Stafford
- 7.7 yards per attempt against the blitz
- 6.6 yards per attempt when not blitzed
- Aaron Rodgers
- 7.5 yards per attempt against the blitz
- 6.5 yards per attempt when not blitzed
- Joe Burrow
- 7.5 yards per attempt against the blitz
- 7.2 yards per attempt when not blitzed
- Dak Prescott
- 7.4 yards per attempt against the blitz
- 7.2 yards per attempt when not blitzed
- Daniel Jones
- 7.4 yards per attempt against the blitz
- 6.5 yards per attempt when not blitzed
- Lamar Jackson
- 7.1 yards per attempt against the blitz
- 6.7 yards per attempt when not blitzed
- Trevor Lawrence
- 7.0 yards per attempt against the blitz
- 6.8 yards per attempt when not blitzed
- Tom Brady
- 6.6 yards per attempt against the blitz
- 6.2 yards per attempt when not blitzed
Flores’ blitz-happy ways will certainly excite Vikings fans after watching Donatell’s glorified prevent defense last season. However, there’s an argument to be made that a defensive scheme that is overly reliant on blitzing can do more harm than good. And if/when the game’s best quarterbacks identify Minnesota’s blitzes and throw into them effectively, that means Jefferson and the offense will have to keep pace when they’re back on the field.
(Just in case you needed another reminder as to why creating pressure with four is so important, look no further.)
The next reason Jefferson’s ceiling is so magically unknown might terrify Skoldiers. But if I’m Jefferson’s agency at CAA, I would take a quick look at their client’s trend of steady statistical improvement year after year and bet on it continuing in 2023 before signing that extension. And by doing so, Jefferson would have even more leverage to completely blow the roof off of the wide-receiver market one year from now when his agents sit across the table from Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and Rob Brzezinski.
While I obviously can’t speak for Jefferson’s team of agents, it’s a given that their current asking price exceeds the four-year, $120 million and five-year, $140 million contracts that were given to Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams before the 2022 season. And if the Vikings aren’t willing to pony up the dough now, then Jefferson will be even more incentivized to be a weekly reminder of yesterday’s price is not today’s price as he lights up the NFL in 2023.
The final component to Jefferson setting new career-highs this season will come down to whether or not Kevin O’Connell can successfully crack the two-high conundrum. At the NFL Scouting Combine over the winter, O’Connell mentioned to local media members that opposing defenses that typically played with a single-high safety would pivot to more consistent two-high safety looks in an effort to shut down Minnesota’s All-Pro receiver. And the Vikings told us through their actions during free agency just how critical it is that they give their star receiver more favorable coverages.
On the surface, Skoldiers let out a collective groan when tight end Josh Oliver was the first player the Vikings signed in free agency. But like essentially every offensive coach in the NFL, O’Connell likely saw and studied what the Kansas City Chiefs did last season. KC created better opportunities for Patrick Mahomes and its passing game by manipulating how defenses aligned their coverages against them. Last season, the Chiefs lined up in either 12 or 13 personnel on 42% of their first downs — which was fourth-highest in the NFL. Twelve-personnel means one running back, two tight ends, and two wide receivers. Thirteen-personnel means one running back, three tight ends, and one wide receiver.
By relying on heavier formations that signify a running play, it forces the defense to bring an additional defender into the box, thus creating single-high coverages. And if/when opposing defenses don’t honor that run threat, it creates a numbers advantage for the offense to effectively run the ball. The signing of Oliver will be two fold for Minnesota’s offense. Like the Chiefs did last season when facing light boxes, they didn’t hesitate to run right into them with their numbers advantage. And Oliver’s run blocking prowess singlehandedly will make a significant difference in the run game if defenses elect to remain in two-high.
And when defenses decide that they have to account for the numbers advantage that 12- or 13-personnel presents for the offense’s running game, then you go to work against single-high coverages.
If O’Connell can effectively lean into this philosophy that Andy Reid implemented with the Chiefs last season, he’ll be able to do a much better job of marrying the run and pass game. He’ll also simultaneously create a handful of single-high opportunities to exploit the defense with Jefferson.
Quite frankly, Justin Jefferson’s ceiling is limitless this season. And these three contributing factors will certainly play a role in The Best Receiver on the Planet having his fourth consecutive season where he raises the bar for himself.
