By all means, Minnesota Vikings fans, enjoy the Josh Dobbs Game.
Minnesota’s 31-28 triumph over the Atlanta Falcons was a joy to watch as Dobbs tossed the football around to pass-catchers who were strangers to him. To be fair, they were semi-anonymous to most Vikings fans with all the injuries that had occurred. The journeyman quarterback immediately endeared himself to the fanbase with a mobility that had been foreign to Minnesota football-watchers for the last six years. He was calm, clutch, and courageous. Dobbs’ aura of innocence after the game — literally introducing himself to beat reporters as if they didn’t know his name — was adorable.
All of this was wholesome, heartening, and worth celebrating. However, the victory gave Vikings fans a much-needed dopamine rush that is already leading to some reckless opinions.
Let Dobbs into your heart as you would a romantic fling. But hold off on buying any engagement rings until you’ve had more than one date.
The Vikings know as well as any organization how fun it can be to ride the wave of a good underdog story… and how unsatisfying it can be if you try to make it last past its expiration date.
The journeyman backup quarterback, by definition, is lightning in a bottle. A flash in the pan. A shooting star. Randall Cunningham fell into place for the 1998 Vikings. But the fairy dust sprinkled on Cunningham was out of stock when they tried to run it back in 1999. The Vikings replaced Cunningham with Jeff George, another journeyman.
Brad Johnson took over for an injured Daunte Culpepper and nearly led the team to the playoffs in 2005. However, making him the quarterback in 2006 was the wrong move.
Joe Webb was a cult hero for leading the beleaguered Vikings past the Philadelphia Eagles on a random Tuesday night. But he promptly turned into a pumpkin when Minnesota tried turning to him in a 2012 playoff game.
Following the miraculous 2017 campaign, Case Keenum was in the running to get a hefty contract before the Vikings signed Kirk Cousins to be their franchise quarterback. Rick Spielman wisely let Keenum walk. Keenum’s 9-17 record since leaving Minnesota has vindicated Spielman. In 50 starts outside of Minnesota, Keenum went 18-32 with five other teams.
Dobbs could play himself into this same conversation. Like Keenum did six years ago, he has an expiring contract. With a forgiving schedule again, it’s not out of the realm of possibility Dobbs goes 5-4 or 6-3 and starts a playoff game for the Vikings. Maybe he’ll even throw a game-winning 61-yard field goal on the final play. Some fans on social media are already showing Cousins the door and purchasing real estate in Dobbs County.
However, this writer will be preaching caution. For one, Dobbs still has to play eight more games in an unfamiliar offense. He could get injured, benched, or suffer a lengthy losing streak. Suddenly, a rookie first-round pick or the 35-year-old Kirk Cousins off an Achilles injury wouldn’t look so bad.
On the other hand, the more spectacular Dobbs looks, the closer he gets to asking for Geno Smith money (three years, $75 million) in free agency. (And Smith is regressing with the Seattle Seahawks as we speak.) That’s a pickle for Kwesi Adofo-Mensah because the Vikings already owe Cousins $28 million in dead money next year. If Dobbs continues looking like the quarterback who showed out in the second half versus Atlanta, the Vikings could find themselves in a bidding war… for a 29-year-old quarterback… who only has half a season of tape.
That becomes an expensive gamble for the Vikings, one their risk-mitigating general manager may not approve of.
Dobbs was fun on Sunday, but he’s not airtight. If you tally up his expected points added on scrambles — very impressive scrambles, at that — he still offset those gains and then some with his EPA on three fumbles (two lost) and a safety taken. Dobbs is a high-variance quarterback with four games above 75 QBR and three games below 20 QBR. His scrambling propensity makes for thrilling theater and a cringing training staff with every hit (see Hall, Jaren).
The rocket scientist quarterback with an ah-shucks attitude and an apparent fearlessness should keep the Vikings relevant for the rest of 2023. And in a small-sample-size sport, he may enjoy surprising success in the second half of the season.
The Dobbs Era could be fun. Enjoy the fling, but don’t schedule a trip for him to meet your parents.
