Sadly, the Minnesota Vikings lost Kirk Cousins to an Achilles injury in their 24-10 win over the Green Bay Packers on Sunday.
The timing of the injury is brutal for a Vikings team that had clawed its way back to 4-4 after starting the season 0-3. Currently occupying the seventh seed in the NFC, Minnesota had a clear path to the postseason with the fifth-easiest remaining schedule in the NFL per DVOA. For Kirk personally, the injury also comes at a terrible time, because he will enter free agency after this season.
The scarcity of quality quarterbacks, combined with the position’s outsized importance, makes it the highest-paid roster spot in the NFL. Many teams spend years searching for a viable starting QB, which makes it virtually impossible to add one when your starter goes down during the season. Furthermore, Cousins was playing some of the best football in his career during the San Francisco 49ers’ game and against the Packers before suffering the injury. In losing him, the Vikings will drop from having near-elite QB play to striving to play competently.
The Vikings had Nick Mullens as their backup going into the season, but they recently put him on IR with a back injury. With ann unclear timetable for his return, Minnesota was initially looking at rookie Jaren Hall, who managed to preserve the win against Green Bay, as the potential starter. Then, before the trade deadline on Tuesday, Kwesi Adofo-Mensah pulled a late-round pick swap for Arizona Cardinals’ QB Josh Dobbs.
At this point, it is unclear whether the Vikings plan for Hall or Dobbs to be the starter for the remainder of the season. In his post-trade press conference, Kevin O’Connell indicated that the plan is for Hall to start on Sunday against the Atlanta Falcons.
Regardless of who ends up beyond next week, Dobbs and Hall have some similarities. Dobbs is taller, but both are similarly talented. We’ve seen Dobbs be effective as a runner and scrambler this season. Only Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts have rushed for more yards than he has. Hall also displayed mobility at BYU, something Cousins lacks. Neither Dobbs nor Hall have elite arm strength, but both have quality arms for the NFL level, similar to Cousins. But despite being in the NFL since 2017, Dobbs lacks a track record of playing experience. He’d thrown fewer than 100 passes in his career before starting the first eight games for the Cardinals this season.
Cousins is one of the most accurate passers in the NFL, and ranks third among 36 passers with adjusted completion percentage of 80.5% per PFF. Dobbs ranks 32nd in the same stat with an adjusted completion percentage of 71.2%. Interestingly, Cousins has a nearly identical time to throw as Dobbs this year, at 2.71 seconds to 2.74 seconds. However, that seems to be because each team has constructed their offense differently.
Dobbs had dropbacks last under 2.5 seconds 48.8% of the time in Arizona, ranked 13th. Meanwhile, Cousins’ rate was only 41.3%, 30th in the NFL. The Vikings have been fond of longer-developing passing concepts to attack the intermediate area of the field, and have generally eschewed the quick game. Dobbs’ numbers suggest that the Cardinals run a heavy dose of quick game, with the average time to throw inflated by plays where Dobbs scrambles.
At BYU, Jaren Hall’s adjusted completion percentage split the difference between what Cousins and Dobbs have done, at 75.9%. His time to throw, at 2.78 seconds, was quite similar to both players. However, from the three games I charted when I scouted Hall, BYU ran quick game about 46% of the time, similar to the rate Dobbs appears to have for the Cardinals.
Having established the differences in their playing styles, let’s take a look at what the Vikings might be able to do to help their new starter.
Making the difficult look easy
Minnesota’s offense put a lot on Cousins’ shoulders. From pre-snap checks to post-snap reads, Cousins was executing at a high level physically and mentally. Particularly from the mental side, you can’t expect Dobbs or Hall to execute plays like the below to the same level that Cousins had been able to, given he’s made 145 career starts.
On the play below, Cousins recognizes a blitz from the defense. That comes with experience, and that experience allows him to check into a screen to Cam Akers that leads to a first-and-goal. It’s the perfect call against the blitz:
In the Green Bay game, Cousins regularly progressed through full field reads and went to the back side of the play. That’s extremely difficult for any QB, but it would be especially hard for one who is new to an offensive system, like Dobbs will be, or young and adjusting to the NFL game, like Hall. On the play below, Cousins looks at the three receiver side before coming back to K.J. Osborn running a dig. He adds an extra layer of looking off the LB to create space for the throw over the middle of the field.
The processing to say no to the three-receiver side and go to the dig while hitching only once is difficult even for most quality starters.
Cousins was at his best in terms of his anticipation and precision in the passing game. He threw passes before receivers made their breaks and was able to fire them into tight windows accurately. Take this throw to Brandon Powell, where he begins his motion before Powell breaks on the dig route, and threads it just over Dre Greenlaw‘s outstretched arm. Oh, also, Cousins had the rush bearing down on him with Arik Armstead about to make contact.
Cousins’ role in the offense will not be easily replaceable. Hall and Dobbs may be able to physically make the throws that Cousins made above, but to actually execute the pass concepts requires a level of mental processing and consistency that is impossible to ask of any player thrust into the starting role. Therefore, the Vikings will have to adjust their offense to put less on the QB’s shoulders.
Adjusting for (a lack of) experience
Unfortunately, the reason the Vikings structured their passing game the way they have because they believe it is the best way to win football games. And, despite an early rash of turnovers, they seem to be right. Kirk ranked sixth in EPA+CPOE composite over the first eight weeks of the season.
The Vikings will adjust their offense, but they should keep one element the same: play action. Cousins has run play action at the second-highest rate in the NFL per PFF, at 31.1%. That’s not just rollouts but also straight dropback play action, which the Vikings are quite good at and has helped create openings for receivers.
For example, look at the wide open middle of the field for T.J. Hockenson has on the play below:
Dobbs has run play action at 25.8% rate this season, and Hall has some experience with play-action dropbacks from under center and from pistol at BYU, which is rare for a college QB. On the play below, he turns his back to the defense and makes a nice throw on a corner route for a TD:
Straight dropback play action has been great for the Vikings, but it is a little more difficult for the QB to process. Rollouts are generally seen as a great suggestion for mobile QBs, and they have the bonus of helping to simplify the read in most cases as the QB is only reading half of the field.
The Vikings will probably run more rollouts, but there is a problem with that. In the modern NFL, defenses have gotten very sensitive to the possibility of rollouts. The Vikings tried two with Hall last week. On the play below, the Green Bay Packers pressured Hall so much that he had to immediately get rid of the ball. A rookie seeing his first action, Hall deserves a ton of credit for processing this quickly and throwing it away, but the offense spamming the rollout button is not a robust solution to their QB problem:
Expect an increase in the quick game from Minnesota’s offense. They have obviously run it this year, like on the play below to Jordan Addison.
Hall was particularly proficient throwing quick game at BYU. He was very effective in the RPO and quick screen game, with only one inaccurate throw among the 23 I charted. He was efficient handling the ball on RPOs and had a quick release:
Given Hall and Dobbs’ proficiency with using their legs, it would make sense for the Vikings to try to run more RPOs and read-option type plays that have not been a part of the offense to this point.
Finally, the supporting cast may help Minnesota’s new QB the most. The Vikings have the best WR in the game, Justin Jefferson, potentially coming back from IR in two weeks. During his absence, their first-round pick, Addison, has emerged. Hockenson is one of the best receiving TEs in the game, Osborn is solid, and Powell has really stepped up as WR3 in Jefferson’s absence.
Hall showed a proclivity for trusting his receivers in college, particularly Puka Nacua, who has gotten off to a great start in the NFL. Here Hall rips a back-shoulder throw on the first play of a game:
Conclusion
Whether they go with Josh Dobbs or Jaren Hall, Minnesota’s starter will have an extremely difficult time replacing Kirk Cousins in Kevin O’Connell’s offense. The processing, anticipation, and precision that Cousins had shown over the past couple of games was elite. O’Connell will have to explore a range of possibilities to help his new QB.
Continuing to run play action at a high rate will help get players open and make easier reads for the QB. The Vikings should try more rollouts, but they have to be wary of overusing them because defenses are typically ready for them. The team should also use more quick game, particularly on early downs, to help the offense stay ahead of the sticks. To make use of a better athlete at the position, Minnesota should try to install some read option plays and run more RPOs, something both Hall and Dobbs can do.
The Vikings will also have to put more on their playmakers’ shoulders, who should be up to the challenge. Quicker throws mean that players like Addison and Jefferson will have to execute after the catch. However, the offense should also put those players in positions where they have one-on-ones. Hall, in particular, has shown that he can trust receivers in that scenario. But Dobbs should also be able to trust it, given the level of talent on Minnesota’s roster. Jefferson, Hockenson, and Addison should all win consistently in that situation. Establishing that connection could be key to maintaining a strong offense.
