“Not For Long” in the NFL doesn’t just apply to a player’s career trajectory within the league. Schemes are always evolving, and the scales are constantly changing between who has the upper hand, offense or defense, throughout the league. At this time last year, Sean McVay‘s 11-personnel was all the rage — and rightfully so after both the Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Rams showcased it on the game’s biggest stage in Super Bowl LVI. With condensed three-receiver formations and buzzwords like illusion of complexity, the Minnesota Vikings pulled up to the 11-personnel party — veggie tray in-hand — by hiring Kevin O’Connell.
But as the season wore on, the McVay 11-personnel fad sprinkled throughout the league in Minnesota, Los Angeles, Cincinnati, and Green Bay hit its biggest roadblock to date. Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford, Joe Burrow, and Aaron Rodgers all experienced a noticeable dip in efficiency from 2021 to 2022.
Cousins
- 2021
- 103.1 passer rating
- 0.13 EPA per dropback
- 2022
- 92.5 passer rating
- 0.06 EPA per dropback
Stafford
- 2021
- 102.9 passer rating
- 0.20 EPA per dropback
- 2022
- 87.4 passer rating
- negative 0.07 EPA per dropback
Burrow
- 2021
- 108.3 passer rating
- 0.17 EPA per dropback
- 2022
- 100.8 passer rating
- 0.16 EPA per dropback
Rodgers
- 2021
- 111.9 passer rating
- 0.26 EPA per dropback
- 2022
- 91.1 passer rating
- 0.04 EPA per dropback
After watching all four of these arguable top-10 NFL quarterbacks take a considerable step back last season, it’s abundantly clear that NFL defenses tipped the scales in their favor and took back the advantage that this particular McVay 11-personnel scheme had in the league. But one coach in the NFL had the foresight to see this shift coming heading into last season. Even though Andy Reid has his own coaching tree and isn’t part of the McVay lineage, the Kansas City Chiefs’ offense has historically been reliant upon frequent 11-personnel usage since Patrick Mahomes took over as starting quarterback in 2018. In 2020, Kansas City’s 68% 11-personnel frequency on first downs was fourth-highest in the NFL. Their percentage of first downs in 11-personnel dropped to 51% last season, which ranked 20th across the league.
Instead of unapologetically spreading defenses out on early downs, Reid invited defenders into the box by lining up in either 12- or 13-personnel (two or three tight ends) on 42% of their first downs, which was fourth-highest in the league. Did Reid feel compelled to take the ball out of Mahomes’ hands by reverting to the ground-and-pound scheme he deployed with Alex Smith as his quarterback? Nope. He was just giving his MVP quarterback more advantageous coverages by manipulating the defense into honoring the run threat. And when opposing defenses called Kansas City’s bluff with multiple tight ends on early downs by staying in two-high, Mahomes simply handed the ball off and let his running backs go to work behind All-Pros Joe Thuney and Creed Humphrey.
And for shits and giggles, Reid even busted out an 03-personnel out of empty on fourth down in the AFC Championship game.
Other pass-happy offenses caught wind of this — and not just the ones with a McVay disciple as their head coach. The Vikings made tight end Josh Oliver a priority signing on the opening day of free agency to pair with Pro Bowler T.J. Hockenson. The Buffalo Bills drafted Dalton Kincaid with the 25th-overall pick in the draft to pair with Dawson Knox. Reid’s former offensive coordinator Doug Pederson and the Jacksonville Jaguars drafted Brenton Strange in the second round before giving Evan Engram a three-year extension a few weeks ago. Brian Daboll, Mike Kafka (Reid’s former quarterbacks coach), and the New York Giants traded for Darren Waller after Daniel Bellinger flashed at times as a rookie last season.
Are the Bills running for the hills and throwing out Ken Dorsey and Joe Brady’s pass-happy scheme after Josh Allen led the NFL in turnovers last season? Nope. Buffalo general manager Brandon Beane is just being intentional by giving their Pro Bowl quarterback additional support in the run game while simultaneously creating more favorable coverages.
Interestingly enough, the Bills (65%) and Vikings (64%) ranked seventh and eighth, respectively, in 11-personnel frequency on first downs last season. And both offenses aren’t necessarily hiding their intentions to be more dependent on multiple tight end formations after Buffalo (8%) ranked 31st and Minnesota (15%) ranked 27th in 12-personnel frequency on first downs last season.
On a macro level, this 12-personnel fad being deployed by offenses across the league with pass-centric schemes is the latest example of the NFL being the ultimate copycat league — and for good reason. NFL defenses finally cracked the code on offenses that were overly reliant on 11-personnel frequency, and it has forced these offensive play callers back to the drawing board (or to review more and more film of Reid’s 2022 offense with the Chiefs).
Will the 12-personnel wave have staying power? Do defenses counter by unleashing more three (or four) safety looks to properly combat the run while prioritizing defenders that can cover better than linebackers? Regardless of how it shakes out this season, it will be fascinating to watch how the Vikings and the rest of the league respond to the NFL’s latest fad.
