As Minnesota Vikings fans begin to prematurely turn their attention to the 2024 draft and salivate over college QBs, let’s pause for a quick breather to reset what we know about the current Vikings quarterback, his history, and the team’s pending schedule. Naturally, there’s a history lesson coming.
The end of the Mike Zimmer era in Minnesota was marked by a few key themes — let’s put aside, for a moment, the “fear-based organization” allegations.
His final two Vikings teams got off to terrible starts, battled hard to get back to .500 (never above), and ultimately fell short of the playoffs, planting themselves in draft purgatory. Kirk Cousins was the quarterback, of course.
The 2020 team had a very similar vibe to this year’s group, and that could make for not only an unsatisfying end to the regular season but also an uninspiring offseason.
For one, the 2020 team remade its secondary. They also changed defensive coordinators from George Edwards to Adam Zimmer and Andre Patterson in a shared role. Likewise, the 2023 version made wholesale defensive changes and brought in Brian Flores.
Three years ago, that group also started 1-4. They beat a doormat club in Week 4 to earn a win and lost narrowly to a powerhouse in Week 5 to sink them three games below .500. Sound familiar?
The 2020 Vikings bottomed out at 1-5 after a loss to the woebegone Atlanta Falcons and were sellers at the ensuing deadline. They traded starting edge rusher Yannick Ngakoue and added kindling to the “Tank For Trevor” mantra. If not Trevor Lawrence, surely Zach Wilson, Trey Lance or Justin Fields would be available.
But when you combine an ownership group, GM, and head coach who weren’t interested in tanking, you got the 2020 Vikings. Playing in front of zero fans during the pandemic year, the Vikings upset the Green Bay Packers, handled the Detroit Lions, and unconvincingly snuck by the Chicago Bears, Carolina Panthers, and Jacksonville Jaguars to become 6-6 in the month of December and firmly in the playoff hunt. The Vikings missed the playoffs at 7-9, but they built enough equity to run it back the following year.
Who knows if that late-season surge cost them a chance at a quarterback who would’ve become a fixture in purple. But it may have extended the leash on Cousins and forced Minnesota’s hand to spend money unwisely in the following months.
The question now is: Will history repeat itself?
It could.
Fans can point to one-off performances like the Buffalo Bills in 2018, Atlanta in 2020 or even Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 1 this year. But Cousins generally beats teams he’s supposed to beat. His Vikings record is a gaudy 37-9-1 against teams that would eventually miss the playoffs — a better winning percentage than Aaron Rodgers over that span, who went 36-15-1.
And the upcoming slate looks gettable, folks. The Bears (twice), Denver Broncos, and Las Vegas Raiders appear to be some of the league’s worst teams. Green Bay is suddenly swooning, and the Vikings get them twice. The Falcons and Saints are 3-2 but lacking great quarterback play.
There are between six and eight wins there for the taking if the Vikings play cleaner football. Whichever side of the tanking aisle you’re on, a resurgence is a possibility. Some may cheer at the prospect of meaningful games against the Lions in the final weeks of the season. Others may groan that the Caleb Williams/Drake Maye dream will never be a reality.
The elephant in the room is Justin Jefferson‘s absence. He hasn’t missed a meaningful game in his Vikings career, which means Cousins has never started a game without him since he was drafted. Note, though, that Cousins went 1-0 without Stefon Diggs and 8-2 without Adam Thielen during their Vikings careers. And the cupboard isn’t bare. A combo platter of Jordan Addison, K.J. Osborn, and T.J. Hockenson is formidable enough to beat the softest opponents on the Minnesota schedule. No style points needed — Cousins has plenty of ugly wins in that 37-9-1 record. Plus, Jefferson could expedite his return after four weeks if the Vikings are suddenly 4-5.
While Jefferson is the No. 1 receiver in the NFL, even the 10th- to 14th-best quarterback in the league will have a greater impact on outcomes.
Kwesi Adofo-Mensah could splash by trading players like Danielle Hunter or K.J. Osborn, but not even that may be enough to repress the beater-of-bad-teams Mr. Cousins. The logic to a Cousins trade is also flimsy at best when taking into account his no-trade clause, salary, and lack of suitors that could entice him with a long-term offer in exchange for uprooting his family. Face it, Cousins is at his best when playing from behind. That means not only in games, but in seasons that appear to be going down the drain. He has a manageable path to get the Vikings to 7-7 by Week 16 with a chance at a Wild Card berth. This is the Cousins Way.
This writer will not tell you how to cheer in the coming weeks. Root for Justin Fields to run roughshod, Brock Purdy to continue his winning streak, and the Packers to drive the nail into the coffin in Week 8 if you want. But accept, too, that the season could play out differently. Your college QB crushes may not be attainable.
