There’s no two ways around it. The Minnesota Vikings got significantly worse as a football team following last week’s trade of edge rusher Za’Darius Smith to the Cleveland Browns. The Vikings shipped out one of the game’s best pass rushers in exchange for essentially moving up a round or two on Day 3 of the 2024 and 2025 NFL Drafts. Folks who’ll try to downplay Smith’s loss will highlight that he’ll be 31 years old when Week 1 of the 2023 season rolls around. Or the injury narrative that has accompanied the 2020 All-Pro and three-time Pro Bowler — despite the fact that Smith has played 16 regular-season games in four out of the past five seasons.
Did Za’Darius Smith force a trade this offseason? Sure seemed like it. But would he have felt compelled to if the Vikings found a way to properly compensate him after being one of the game’s best pass rushers last year? Doubtful.
Father Time is still undefeated. And the proverbial cliff for Smith could be coming, maybe even as soon as 2023 after Smith played through a knee injury throughout last season. Smith’s detractors will highlight his slide in the second half of last season, which saw his pressure rate basically get cut in half.
However, it’s worth noting that 10% pressure rates out of full-time pass rushers don’t grow on trees in the National Football League. For context, former All-Pro Khalil Mack recorded an 11.4% pressure rate in 18 games last season for the Los Angeles Chargers. And three-time Pro Bowler — and the current No. 3 all-time leader in playoff sacks — Frank Clark recorded a 9.5% pressure rate in 18 games last year for the Kansas City Chiefs. Point being, even a clearly less-than-100% Za’Darius Smith is still one of the better pass rushers in the game.
His ability to consistently win both out on the edge and in the interior on obvious passing situations singlehandedly allows whatever defense he plays on to be even more dangerous by inserting another edge rusher on the field on third-and-longs. And now that Smith will be playing elsewhere in 2023, Brian Flores‘ defensive front will experience an obstacle that’s eerily similar to what the Vikings’ offense faced last year with Justin Jefferson. Now that Danielle Hunter is the lone, obvious potential game-wrecker for opposing offenses to scheme against, offensive play callers can now unapologetically load up on Hunter with extra protections while simultaneously daring Minnesota’s others to beat them.
Is free-agent signee Marcus Davenport capable of making offenses pay when isolated on passing situations? Speaking of injury narratives: Throughout his four-year career, Davenport has missed three-plus games in four of his five seasons in the NFL. He’s had a total of 19 games that have forced him out of action throughout his young career.
How about fellow free-agent signee Dean Lowry? In his Packers tenure, Lowry was the beneficiary of having opposing offenses load up their protections on elite edge rushers such as Za’Darius Smith, Preston Smith, and Rashan Gary. Can he be relied upon consistently now that there’s only a single legitimate threat in Hunter on Minnesota’s defensive front?
Is D.J. Wonnum ready to make a significant jump in his fourth season (which is also a contract year)? As a full-time pass rusher in 2021, Wonnum recorded a 7.2% pressure rate, which certainly won’t cut it in a full-time role again in 2023.
A look around the NFL today will show you that every single contender has two things in common: Elite quarterback play and elite defensive fronts.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes, Chris Jones, and two first-round edge rushers.
- The Philadelphia Eagles have Jalen Hurts, Haason Reddick, Brandon Graham, Fletcher Cox, Jordan Davis, Jalen Carter, and Nolan Smith.
- The San Francisco 49ers have whichever quarterback Kyle Shanahan wants to churn out 100-plus passer ratings with, plus Nick Bosa, and Javon Hargrave.
- The Cincinnati Bengals have Joe Burrow, Trey Hendrickson, D.J. Reader, and Myles Murphy.
- The Buffalo Bills have Josh Allen, Von Miller, and Gregory Rousseau.
- The Dallas Cowboys have Dak Prescott, Micah Parsons, Dexter Lawrence, and Mazi Smith.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have Justin Herbert, Joey Bosa, and Khalil Mack.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have Trevor Lawrence, Travon Walker, and Josh Allen.
- The New York Jets have Aaron Rodgers, Quinnen Williams, and John Franklin-Myers.
- The Cleveland Browns have Deshaun Watson, Myles Garrett, and Za’Darius Smith.
- And the Vikings have Kirk Cousins, *maybe* Danielle Hunter, and a bunch of question marks.
In case I wasn’t clear enough with the list provided above, the Minnesota Vikings are not a serious Super Bowl contender when you compare their quarterback and defensive front to the 10 other teams mentioned. What happens to Minnesota’s defense in 2023 if Hunter reverts to his 2020 and 2021 injury-plagued days? Depending on how you look at it, that could be the exact remedy that throws this franchise into the Caleb Williams sweepstakes in the 2024 draft — which by no means would be the bad thing.
Could the Vikings sign a replacement edge rusher like Yannick Ngakoue or Frank Clark over the coming months to help cushion the blow of losing Za’Darius Smith? If they have any intentions of being taken even remotely seriously in 2023, that type of move has suddenly become a requirement.
Because, as it stands now, this team isn’t winning a single playoff game with the way their defensive front is currently constructed.
