We’ve all seen it. Your friend is dating this guy or girl, and they’ve been together for a long time. They break up out of nowhere and everyone is wondering why they would split.
Your friend is undeterred. They start going out until they meet someone new. Their Instagram is flooded with photos of the new couple together. They’re headed to Mexico next week! They seem happy, but not as happy as the person they dumped.
This is what we call New Girlfriend Syndrome, and the Minnesota Vikings are experiencing it as they transition from Dalvin Cook to Alexander Mattison.
After six years with the Vikings, Cook will be known as one of the greatest running backs in team history along with Adrian Peterson and Robert Smith. His 5,993 career rushing yards are third all-time behind Minnesota’s legendary duo, and he joined that group by rushing for 1,000 yards in each of the past four seasons.
Despite this, there were some things that could have gone better. Cook suffered multiple injuries, including a torn ACL at the beginning of his career, which prevented him from putting up even bigger numbers. The Vikings also didn’t have great team success with Cook. They never advanced past the divisional round of the playoffs outside of the 2017 squad that advanced to the NFC Championship game with Cook on the sidelines.
Then there was this past season when Cook was one of the most inefficient running backs in the league. Only the Jacksonville Jaguars had more runs go for negative yards or no gain last season. Cook was dead last among running backs with a minimum of 130 carries with 200 yards below average.
Mix in the fact he’ll turn 28 in August and is on a massive contract Rick Spielman doled out, it’s understandable why the Vikings decided it was best to part ways.
Or in this case, break up.
That’s where things have gotten weird. The Vikings replaced Cook with Mattison on their team banner months before Cook’s release. Kevin O’Connell also praised Mattison’s “three-down abilities” during OTAs, and fantasy football writers are falling over themselves while trying to usher in “MATTISON RB1 SZN.”
In a lot of ways, Minnesota’s praise of Mattison has the same energy as your friend Karen, who photoshopped her new boyfriend into some old wedding photos. But it also is confusing as Mattison is experiencing the biggest star turn since Gordon Bombay went from coaching the Mighty Ducks to a Pee Wee hockey championship to leading the U.S. National Team to a gold medal.
Leaning on Mattison has its merits as he’s matched Cook’s production when given the opportunity. According to The Athletic’s Alec Lewis, Mattison second among 59 running backs in success rate last season while Cook ranked 51st. Mattison also had a 45.9% success rate on non-explosive runs (20 yards or fewer) and had 14.8% of his attempts go for chunk gains (runs of eight to 12 yards).
By comparison, Cook logged a 33.2% success rate on non-explosive runs while only 10.2% of his runs went for chunk gains.
This efficiency can help the Vikings in that it gives O’Connell more options as a play-caller. With Cook usually stuffed on first down, O’Connell was forced into more second-and-long situations that required him to throw more than he would like. If Mattison can be a consistent presence on the ground, O’Connell can open up the playbook, tilting the time of possession in his favor with more runs and eliminating the need for fourth-quarter comebacks.
But these stats come with the small sample size that Mattison has seen throughout his career. Since logging 100 carries during his rookie year in 2019, Mattison’s only other season with over 100 carries came in 2021, where he averaged only 3.7 yards per carry.
Mattison also made four starts during that season but showed the same inefficiencies as Cook did last year. If we include a 20-carry performance against the Seattle Seahawks where Mattison relieved an injured Cook, 58% of Mattison’s carries have gone for three or fewer yards when pressed into a starter’s role.
While Mattison logs a 29% rate on runs that went for four to eight yards, only 8% of his runs went for chunk plays and 10% of his runs went for 12 yards or more. Adding those up, only 42% of Mattison’s runs as a starter could be deemed as efficient runs.
There’s also the mystery of why Mattison didn’t get more playing time last season. Even if the Vikings weren’t in a position to run the ball more due to Cook’s inefficiency, Mattison probably should have taken over at some point instead of logging a career-low 74 carries.
There’s also the report that the Vikings contacted David Montgomery before he signed with the Detroit Lions this offseason, making the hype for Mattison even weirder.
Then again, it’s not like the Vikings have someone else they can build up. Ty Chandler starred during last year’s preseason but didn’t carve out a role after suffering a broken hand. DeWayne McBride follows the same path Isiah Pacheco followed to become a prototype for general managers looking to build a cheaper backfield, but a seventh-round pick isn’t guaranteed to become a success in his rookie season.
Even Kene Nwangwu’s increased usage during OTAs feels like a last-ditch effort to get him involved on offense as opposed to the prelude for a breakout.
In the end, this could leave the Vikings just like that friend of yours. They like what have now, but it’s not as good as what they had. While they’ll never show it, they wish they could go back, but both sides appear to be happy.
If that’s the outcome for the Vikings backfield, they’ll gladly take it. But if Mattison’s flaws seep through like that friend that leaves the toilet seat up, Minnesota could be caught in a rough situation.
