One game. If we played them 10 times, they might win nine. But not this game. Not tonight. Tonight, we skate with them. Tonight, we stay with them. And we shut them down, because we can. Tonight, we are the greatest hockey team in the world.
Those were the famous words that Kurt Russell spoke as Herb Brooks in the movie Miracle. The 1980 USA Olympic team shocked the world by beating the greatest hockey team on the planet, USSR, at their own fluid and creative game. And that’s exactly what the Minnesota Vikings are capable of with the best football team on the planet, the Kansas City Chiefs, coming to U.S. Bank Stadium on Sunday.
Armed with the best offensive coach, player, and arguably the best interior defender on the planet, the modern day Chiefs are the closest team resembling the 1980 USSR hockey squad that we have in sports today. They win by zigging when their opponents zag, and they’re unafraid to do what’s never been done before.
Granted, it’s a heck of a lot easier to do the unthinkable when your offense is in the hands of the best quarterback in the game. But even with the top-end talent and coaching discrepancy that this matchup presents, the Vikings have the offense that can beat the Chiefs at their own game.
Let’s start with the base offense. When the rest of the league decided to follow the trends Sean McVay spearheaded, with frequent 11-personnel (one running back, one tight end, three wide receivers), Andy Reid and the Chiefs opted to go heavier by leaning into two- or three-tight end formations on early downs. Last season, Kansas City ranked fourth in the NFL by lining up in either 12- or 13-personnel on 42% of their first downs. Their 51% 11-personnel on first down ranked 20th. Not much has changed so far this season. The Chiefs have the sixth-highest 12- or 13-personnel rate (46%) on first downs. Their 52% 11-personnel frequency on first down is 18th.
Despite making tight end Josh Oliver a priority signing on the opening day of free agency, the Vikings have been reluctant to lean into the Oliver-Hockenson pairing on first downs. Minnesota’s offense ranks 19th in 12- or 13-personnel (26%) on first downs. But with the run game experiencing a bit of a renaissance over the past two weeks, there’s enough of a recent book out on Minnesota’s offense for opponents to plan accordingly for their ground game. And this week is the opportune time to unapologetically unleash Oliver on first downs and make Kansas City defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo prioritize stopping the run.
If Spags wants to stay in two-high and keep bracket coverages on Justin Jefferson, Kevin O’Connell could certainly take advantage by letting his run-blocking maestro TE2 go to work against Kansas City’s lighter boxes. If the Vikings can find success with Oliver paving the way for Alexander Mattison and/or Cam Akers, and O’Connell commits to it more than he’s had over the first four games this season, that’s when the serious chunk play opportunities for No. 18 will present themselves.
That’s exactly why Reid and the Chiefs shifted to heavier personnel packages on early downs: to create more favorable opportunities for Patrick Mahomes through the air.
Although the Chiefs have been without All-Pro wide receiver Tyreek Hill since 2022, the Vikings can beat Reid and Kansas City by implementing a similar prioritization of their own All-Pro wide receiver in Jefferson. So far this season, Jefferson has yet to exceed 13 targets in a game. Still, it’s pretty tough to poke holes in Jefferson’s usage when he’s leading the league in receiving and is currently on a 17-game pace of 2,308 yards.
But to beat the Chiefs, you better be prepared to put up points in bunches. And the easiest way to do that is by ruthlessly hitting the “more” button for No. 18. During Hill’s tenure with Mahomes from 2018 to 2021, Reid and the Chiefs had eight such occurrences where they fed Hill 14-plus targets. The Chiefs went 6-2 in those games. When the Chiefs needed to make statements in big-time games, like against the eventual Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 12 of the 2020 season, Hill was the clear focal point. He responded by blowing the roof off the game.
By no means is it normal to sit here and realistically expect that a receiver accumulates anywhere from 200- to 250-plus yards in a single game. But Hill and Jefferson are anything but normal. Jefferson has only surpassed 200 yards once in his career, in last season’s Week 14 loss at Detroit. Hill has done it three times over the past six seasons, and as recently as Week 1 this year inside SoFi Stadium against the Los Angeles Chargers.
Jefferson has yet to eclipse 16 targets in a game during his four-year career. If the Vikings find themselves locked into an early-October shootout inside U.S. Bank Stadium on Sunday, O’Connell has to do whatever he can to enable a completely nuclear performance out of the 2022 NFL Offensive Player of the Year. Which is precisely what Reid got out of Hill a time or two.
I’ll be the first to admit. I didn’t have Andy Reid forced to play ball control against Zach Wilson and the New York Jets on my 2023 NFL bingo card. But that’s exactly what transpired last week on Sunday Night Football. Following a never-before-seen performance, the much-maligned former No. 2-overall pick fumbled a shotgun snap and gave the ball back to Mahomes at the Jets’ 47-yard line with the Chiefs clinging to a 23-20 lead and 7:24 remaining on the clock.
Normally, Kansas City’s opponents do everything possible to milk the clock when possessing the football with a fourth quarter lead. But the tables turned when the football world least expected it last week. Already in enemy territory, the Chiefs converted in two different third-and-20-plus scenarios, aided by questionable non-flags and flags by the stripped brigade. After Robert Saleh burned all of his timeouts and with the Chiefs facing a third-and-eight at the two-minute warning, Mahomes put the final nail in the coffin.
Do the Vikings need to convert two different third-and-a-miles with a fourth-quarter lead like last week’s Chiefs? Not necessarily. But if Minnesota finds itself with the point advantage and the ball at any point in the fourth quarter, it’s paramount to keep No. 15 and No. 87 off the field for as long as humanly possible. That’s when they will need Oliver’s domination in the run game most.
As the rest of the NFL has seen over the past six years, Mahomes only needs 13 seconds to erase a one-score deficit. Giving the ball back to this man in the final seconds of a one-score game is the equivalent to a football death sentence for your team’s chances in that particular week (as long as his gadget-play receivers catch the perfectly-placed passes that Mahomes serves up for them).
The spirit of St. Paul native Herb Brooks and the message he conveyed to his severely undermanned 1980 USA hockey team rings true this week for the Vikings. In desperate need for a win to officially ignite their playoff push, Minnesota will have to slay football’s Goliath along the way. And they can do it by beating the Chiefs at their own game. By leaning into 12- and 13-personnel on early downs, unapologetically peppering Jefferson with a career-high amount of targets, and playing ball control if/when they get a fourth quarter lead.
