When the Minnesota Vikings released popular running back Dalvin Cook to save money on a pinched salary cap, they did so under the premise that their passing game was robust enough to fuel their offense. They also did so believing that a cheaper Alexander Mattison along with a cadre of backups could produce a functional, if not flashy, rushing attack.
Unfortunately, things are rarely that black and white.
Fans have a sour taste in their mouth as the Vikings sit at 2-4 and have labored to beat the league’s cellar-dwellers in the Carolina Panthers and Chicago Bears. The running game, in particular, has taken plenty of arrows, producing 70 yards or fewer in four of six games. Fans conditioned by eight years of Mike Zimmer see totals under 100 yards and are quick to point the finger.
That criticism of the running game is not totally unfounded. But as usual, the data tends to tell a more nuanced tale than the eye test.
To start with, the Vikings are extreme in their run-pass imbalance — they’ve barely run the ball at all. Minnesota has recorded the fewest rushing attempts in the NFL, and that’s with half a dozen teams taking bye weeks already. While the Vikings haven’t had the luxury of sitting on many leads late in games, they’ve also played most of their first six weeks in neutral situations where head coach Kevin O’Connell has had playcalling flexibility.
First downs? Only the Washington Commanders throw a higher percentage of the time.
Second downs? Only the Cincinnati Bengals throw more often.
Third downs? Nobody throws more than the Vikings.
Short yardage? The Vikings are tied in lowest rush percentage.
If you’re looking for run-pass balance, go check out what they’re doing in Philadelphia. Minnesota is currently living and dying with Kirk Cousins and his ability to pass the football. Rushing attempts, rushing yardage, and rushing touchdown stats, by total volume, are going to make the Vikings look inept in the ground game. But volume stats don’t offer us the final word. Minnesota is 19th in yards per carry (4.0), which gets us closer, but we can still be even more precise.
Success rate gives a far clearer picture of a team’s ability to stay on schedule in the run game when they choose to rush the football: getting 40% of the necessary yards on first down, 60% on second down, and 100% on third or fourth down.
Prepare to scoop your jaw up off the floor. The Vikings are fifth in success rate when they choose to run the football. That’s Minnesota’s best success rate since rbsdm.com started tracking the stat in 2012.
VIKINGS RUN SUCCESS RATE (YEAR-BY-YEAR)
2023: 5th
2022: 25th
2021: 28th
2020: 6th
2019: 22nd
2018: 29th
2017: 14th
2016: 26th
2015: 13th
2014: 9th
2013: 11th
2012: 16th
Of course, run success rate doesn’t account for big plays. You’d still rather have 2012 Adrian Peterson giving you a chance to score every time he touches the ball. But the Vikings have scraped together a run game that thus far has a higher success rate than Cook’s best season in 2020 under Gary Kubiak. After a slow start, the Vikings weekly rank in success rate since Week 3 has been sixth, second, fifth, and fourteenth.
Considering the Vikings had ranked 22nd or worse in success rate four out of five years prior to this season, 2023 should feel like a breath of fresh air. But it doesn’t. Why?
Lack of explosives certainly doesn’t help. As inefficient as Cook was last season, he provided five carries of 20-plus yards that occasionally swung games. Mattison and Co. currently have zero.
Vikings running backs have also left a lot of meat on the bone if you look even deeper into the analytics. Mattison has -40 rushing yards over expected (RYOE), ninth-worst out of 48 qualified backs in the NFL. While early-season trade acquisition Cam Akers also has one poor game with the Los Angeles Rams on his resumé, he ranks eighth-worst in the same stat. On a per play basis, Akers is second worst in RYOE per attempt (again, he had one really bad game with the Rams) and Mattison is 13th worst. Marry that information with Pro Football Focus listing the Vikings as the No. 1 run-blocking team in the NFL, and there’s a clear disconnect. It’s fair if you feel a pang watching rookies De’Von Achane or Tyjae Spears.
The NFL’s toughest runners can regularly make bad plays look average and average plays look great by breaking a few tackles, but the Vikings’ tandem isn’t doing much after contact either. Mattison is 40th out of 60 in yards after contact per carry, via Pro Football Focus. Akers is 58th.
Before you raise your voice that Cook would’ve been a solution to this, take into account that Cook is having a nightmare start to his New York Jets career with 2.8 yards per carry. He’s last in the NFL in RYOE/attempt and explosive runs, and toward the bottom in yards after contact. The Vikings seemingly made a good decision there after Cook showed signs of decline in 2022.
However, Vikings fans could rightfully feel like they were sold a bill of goods about the new running-back room. People got hyped about backup Ty Chandler all training camp and preseason, but he only got a handful of carries, and Minnesota relegated him to third-string duty when they brought in Akers. Likewise, they’ve underutilized Akers, Kene Nwangwu has been hurt, and rookie draft pick Dewayne McBride resides on the practice squad. What was assumed to be a flavorful rotation has remained essentially a one-man backfield.
All that said, saving money on Cook was incredibly useful. The team went from third to 22nd in running back spending, which was a win. Improvement in the efficiency of the run game has been a bonus, even though dropped screen passes, fumbles and missed pass blocks haven’t helped the run game’s public relations campaign.
Minnesota’s overall turnover habit continues to mar most evaluations of the team’s offense. While stats support that the run game has done its job by keeping the offense on schedule, fumbles and interceptions in the passing game have accounted for 11 of the team’s 13 turnovers.
The allegedly more reliable facet of the offense has done more to screw things up than the much-maligned running game. Strip away all the turnover nonsense and the Vikings are seventh in the league in yards per play. That’s a total that should produce better than a 2-4 record.
It is simultaneously true that Mattison, Akers, et al., could do more individually. But as a collective, they’ve been adequate in a relatively small role.
