A year ago at this time, the Minnesota Vikings were flying high at 6-1. But the team’s last-second heroics were masking Ed Donatell’s unsustainably leaky defense. After last night’s 22-17 upset of the San Francisco 49ers, the Vikings remain three games off their previous year’s pace. However, there’s a more credible case to be made for defensive coordinator Brian Flores’ defense heading into the second half of the season.
Not only is Flores’ blitz-early-blitz-often scheme more fun to watch than Donatell’s zone shell, the proof is in the statistical pudding that this defense is objectively better. Last year, the Vikings ranked 14th in points allowed but 28th in yards allowed through seven games. That discrepancy was due to even out, and not in the Vikings’ favor. It wasn’t surprising that by season’s end Minnesota ranked 28th in points allowed as their yards allowed sunk to second-worst in the NFL.
Yards are usually more predictive than points, and the 2023 Vikings have posted a far stronger first seven games with Flores than they did with Donatell.
Even with quarterbacks Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes, and Brock Purdy on the opposing schedule thus far, the Vikings rank 15th in yards allowed. They are allowing over 50 yards fewer per game than last season, most of that coming from the opponents’ passing attacks. Only one opposing passer has gone over 275 yards compared to four at this time last year. The run defense has only allowed two 100-yard games compared to double that a year ago.
Donatell and Flores’ schemes couldn’t be more different. But some of the personnel are apples to apples, which helps for comparison purposes.
There are six carryovers who played 500 or more snaps for Donatell who the Vikings retained to play under Flores. While Donatell frustratingly preached patience as players struggled to adapt to his scheme, several veterans have taken immediately to the Flores system, particularly the safeties, who Flores has imbued with far more responsibility.
Cam Bynum is having a breakout season after two interceptions on Monday night, making him PFF’s fourth-ranked safety in the NFL — better than his rank of 72nd at this time last year. Bynum is brimming with confidence and looks more physically imposing. His biggest improvement has come in pass coverage. His passer rating when targeted has dropped over 50 points to a meager 71.3.
Likewise, Dontell’s system restricted Harrison Smith, reducing him to a backstop who could intercept overthrown balls. He had exactly one pass rush attempt through seven games in 2022. But he has 40 under Flores, No. 2 in the NFL behind teammate Josh Metellus. His PFF grade is up from 52nd to 14th after seven games played.
Speaking of pass rush, Danielle Hunter‘s production has also popped. Under a Flores system that overwhelms opposing offensive lines to create one-on-ones, Hunter is getting home more than ever before in his career. With nine sacks, the ninth-year pro needs only six sacks in his final 10 games to set a career high. At his current pace, he’ll threaten 20 sacks as he hits free agency.
If Hunter is trade bait as some suggest, that’s going to be a huge price tag.
Hunter and Smith are Pro Bowlers, and Bynum was a young player on the rise, so maybe their improvements aren’t shocking. But perhaps the most surprising turnaround has come from Jordan Hicks, 31, who took a salary reduction just to stay with the team and was losing snaps last season to Brian Asamoah.
Opponents exposed Hicks in pass coverage because Donatell’s scheme left a lot of air between defenders and receivers. But he’s only allowed 16 receptions this year compared 30 this time last season, and his PFF grade has been lifted from 46th to 13th. (Keep in mind, too, that Hicks’ linebacking partner Eric Kendricks looked below average in Donatell’s system and has had a resurgent start for the Los Angeles Chargers.)
Flores lacks major playmakers at cornerback and defensive tackle. Still, he’s turned the Vikings into a league average defense, which is exactly what needed to happen. The Vikings rank 15th in yards allowed and 20th in points allowed, and those numbers may shrink now as they enter a stretch where most of their opposing quarterbacks rank in the lower half of the league.
Minnesota’s new coordinator has breathed life into a withering defense by reinvigorating its veterans.
If only Flores could’ve showed up a year earlier, who knows how far the ’22 team may have gone.
