When it comes to offseason drama, you could say that Minnesota Vikings fans are cooked.
It doesn’t have to do with Eric Kendricks’ expected release or Adam Thielen’s emotional goodbye. It also doesn’t have to do with the ongoing contract negotiations with Justin Jefferson. If Vikings fans were burned out on any sort of drama, it’s the one surrounding Dalvin Cook.
Cook’s tenure with the Vikings was in question the moment the season ended. With a $14.1 million salary and a decline in his efficiency, Minnesota followed the lead of many teams opting to go for a younger and cheaper backfield.
But while other teams have followed this strategy, the Vikings have received criticism from the national media. Many have wondered why the Vikings would let a still-productive running back go. Therefore, the move has made Cook perhaps the most interesting Viking who is no longer a Viking.
Let’s go back to the hours before Cook was released. Appearing as a guest on The Rich Eisen Show, NFL Network reporter Tom Pelissero was asked, “Why in the world are the Vikings releasing Dalvin Cook?”
While Pelissero mentioned an attempt by both sides to work out a reasonable deal and O’Connell’s desire for a more efficient rushing attack, he went on to list Cook’s accolades and why he is the top name on the free-agent market.
“The challenging part of this with Dalvin Cook is you’re talking about a four-time Pro Bowl pick,” Pelissero began. “He’s the only player in the NFL that has at least 1,100 rushing yards each of the past four seasons. He’s 27 years old, and he might well be the healthiest that he’s ever been because of that shoulder that’s been popping in and out for like three years. He finally got that surgically repaired, and based upon everything that I’ve heard, he’s completely on track to his recovery.”
Pelissero’s answer reiterated what has been the company line for Cook’s camp this offseason. Cook suffered a separated shoulder in 2019 but didn’t get it fixed until this offseason. While the decision to have surgery coincided with a $2 million injury guarantee in his contract, Cook’s agent Zac Hiller believed it was holding him back.
“People are starting to realize that Dalvin has Hall of Fame numbers, but he’s been in Minnesota and they’ve been mediocre,” Hiller said on the Caps Off Podcast last April. “He actually has incredible statistics, but also he’s been playing with one shoulder. … He’s been purposely turning certain ways and thinking about the fact he’s about to get hit and trying not to land on it. So now, this is going to be the first time in a while that he has both his shoulders [and] that’s what we’re looking forward to the most.”
Cook gave a different version of Hiller’s answer when he was interviewed by Pelissero on The Rich Eisen Show shortly after his release.
“A lot of people don’t know…the last three years I’ve been playing with a torn labrum,” Cook said. “I feel good sometimes and then [it’s] like, no, it accidentally comes out and I have to deal with it for like a week and put a brace on and come back and play. It’s just like, learning how to fall [and] learning how to gracefully hit.”
Despite the shoulder issues, Cook’s stats remained the same, rushing for 1,100 yards in four-straight seasons. The stats and Cook’s highlights are still appealing to the common fan, and even Pat McAfee wondered aloud how Cook could still be available in free agency.
“Dalvin Cook can absolutely still f***ing go,” McAfee said on his show Wednesday morning. “…It’s like Dalvin Cook was their offense. The reason why I think Justin Jefferson has all the thing is because Dalvin Cook is in the backfield. … He’s a f***ing game-changer immediately and a f***ing dog…it’s wild he’s on the market.”
McAfee’s guest and noted offensive line coach A.Q. Shipley echoed those comments during a video package.
It’s like you watch this and it’s not like it looks like he’s in Year 13 and lost a step. Like…he is f***ing cruising. Still like cruising. And so when you look at this stuff and you start to weight these options as GMs or front office people or scouts or whatever – and let’s be honest, they all overanalyze everything and think the grass was always greener until it isn’t…right? Then you sit here and you watch this stuff and it’s like, how is this guy still available? And not to mention even if he does lose a step, these guys are such elite football players of this generation that [when] they lose a step, what they’ve lost in a step, they’ve gained in experience and become better football players even by losing a step, and that’s what these people can’t ever put a number on.
This is a fair depiction of how the national media views Cook. While most of America looks at statistics and where Cook finished in fantasy football – he was the RB9 in PPR leagues last year – GMs and front offices look at efficiency and success rate.
Only the Jacksonville Jaguars had more runs of no gain or a negative gain on first down than the Vikings did last season. Cook’s success rate ranked 33rd among 42 running backs with at least 100 carries last season. Football Outsiders defines success rate as “A measure of running back consistency based on the percentage of carries where the player gains 40% of needed yards on first down, 60% of needed yards on second down, or 100% of yards needed on third or fourth down.”
Those two numbers frustrated O’Connell. He even mentioned the desire to improve the efficiency of the running game during his press conference at the NFL Scouting Combine.
“It comes down to efficiency,” O’Connell said via Alec Lewis of The Athletic. “The home runs and long [runs] are great, but as a play caller, I’d love to be second-and-five. If you tell me I’m second-and-five, here we go. We’re in a position to do a lot of different things regardless of field position, score of the game, and personnel groupings.”
ESPN’s Mina Kimes seemed to be the one analyst who was paying attention to these comments. She noted that the Vikings were the sixth-most pass-heavy team on first down and the fourth-most pass-heavy team on second down last season. With O’Connell’s desire to run more efficiently, Kimes believes it will give him more options when facing different defenses.
The Vikings faced a ton of two-high [safieties] last year and had a very high rate of light boxes. But…when they did, they weren’t particularly efficient [when running the ball], so I think this is part of the reason why they were willing to make the change and move on from Dalvin Cook this offseason and they added Josh Oliver. Maybe we’re going to see more two tight end sets. Maybe we’ll see C.J. Ham on the field more. Maybe we’ll see different types of runs instead of just outside zone. I could see the entire offense looking better in Year 2 of [O’Connell’s] regime in Minnesota.
This sets the battleground of Cook’s narrative from a national perspective, and it could play out in several different ways.
The typical storyline for Minnesota teams is that Cook goes to a different team and has another big season. This could incite a big “I told you so” from national analysts, but it could also come in the same fashion: a series of small or negative runs followed by one long jog for a touchdown.
It could also play well for the Vikings, who could do exactly what they want out of the running game. Even if Alexander Mattison leaves fantasy players disappointed, the Vikings could still be successful if he forms a successful committee with Ty Chandler, Kene Nwangwu, and DeWayne McBride.
This follows the blueprint for success O’Connell employed when he was an offensive coordinator with the Los Angeles Rams, who won the Super Bowl with Sony Michel as their leading rusher.
There’s also a scenario where Cook and the Vikings are just okay. If Cook has a mediocre season, there’s a chance he could be in the same role he turned down in Minnesota – splitting carries with a younger back and making less than the $10 million base salary he was scheduled to get last season. Even if the Vikings are less flashy, that could still be a win if the offense opens things up for the passing game.
Then there’s the doomsday scenario for both sides. Cook goes to a new team but falls off the age cliff that has claimed multiple backs in their late 20s. The Vikings could also roll out their new rushing attack but become disappointed when their stable of young backs can’t produce on the ground.
It lays out a variety of potential endings for a storyline that Vikings fans just want to go away. But until Cook and the Vikings hit the field next fall, it could be one of the spiciest narratives for a player who’s not even on the team.
