At some point this offseason, the Minnesota Vikings were in line for a massive celebration.
Kwesi Adofo-Mensah would stand at the podium with a smile from ear to ear. Kevin O’Connell was going to wipe tears of joy from his eyes. Rob Brzezinski would be in the corner having a stiff drink. And Justin Jefferson was blinding everyone within a 50-mile radius of TCO Performance Center with his new grill.
The Wilf family would walk on stage with a giant blank check, the ones you see in the Publisher’s Clearing House sweepstakes. Jefferson would proudly write “ONE BILLION DOLLARS” on it as confetti flew everywhere. A giant banner unfurled from the rafters that would proclaim Jefferson a Viking for life.
Okay, maybe that’s a stretch. But you get the idea.
Jefferson is in line for one of the most significant wide receiver contracts in NFL history. The Vikings would probably like to lock up the face of the franchise. Jefferson said during training camp that he’s “not too fond of money,” and Adofo-Mensah called his new contract a “champagne problem” earlier this offseason.
But here we are just a month outside of training camp, and there’s no sign of a new deal. Vikings fans probably shouldn’t be nervous, but it’s natural to wonder what’s taking so long, especially when both sides have so much to gain.
It starts with the Vikings’ motivation this offseason. After running everybody back one year ago, Adofo-Mensah has put his “competitive rebuild” plan into action, keeping players with long-term upside and getting rid of high-priced veterans who are quick fixes.
Jefferson definitely fits into the long-term upside category. He dominated the league for three seasons. No player in NFL history has more receiving yards in his first three years than Jefferson. The sheer number of people in No. 18 jerseys trying to learn The Griddy signals that he’s the team’s most popular player.
By this logic, there should be a blank contract awaiting Jefferson’s signature. But there’s also the long-term aspect, which could complicate things.
Creating salary cap flexibility is another theme for Minnesota’s front office this offseason. The Vikings cut Adam Thielen, Eric Kendricks, and Dalvin Cook partially because it created cap space in 2024. While they created that space in part to sign Jefferson to a long-term extension, the Vikings don’t want to burn all of that cap space on just one player.
That could create a scenario where Minnesota is willing to work out a five-year deal filled with bonuses and movable money at the back end of the contract. It would work perfectly for the Vikings, who were known to tear up contracts and reward players in the old regime. It just might not be the best option for Jefferson.
Like many players in the NFL, Jefferson probably wants control over his situation. If the Adofo-Mensah’s competitive rebuild doesn’t work, Jefferson would likely want to go to a team that’s ready to contend – especially since he places a high emphasis on winning.
Signing a five-year deal with the Vikings but playing with a bad quarterback wouldn’t help Jefferson in the long run. Thus it may be more beneficial to sign a shorter-term deal to have more control over his situation. By signing a three-year deal, Jefferson can also hit the market in his prime.
It’s a strategy that D.K. Metcalf used in his three-year, $72 million deal that allows him to hit the market after his age-27 season. A.J. Brown also used this strategy, signing a four-year, $100 million contract with the Philadelphia Eagles last summer that makes him a free agent at age 29.
Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill executed the next level of this idea. Adams signed a five-year, $140 million contract with the Las Vegas Raiders at age 30, and Hill signed a four-year, $120 million contract with the Miami Dolphins at age 28.
All of these contracts look great on paper. But there’s another aspect that Jefferson and his camp could be pursuing – a fully guaranteed deal. That could throw another wrench into negotiations as Jefferson looks to maximize his value. Jefferson is worthy of a massive payday, but no receiver has ever gotten a fully-guaranteed contract due to the nature of his position.
While quarterbacks have the same risk, they also are protected by a highly-paid offensive line and the NFL’s rules on roughing the passer. If Kirk Cousins gets $40 million guaranteed a year, there’s a good chance he’s making every start over the life of that contract. Meanwhile, one aggressive hit from a safety or a pulled hamstring could put Jefferson on the shelf.
The Vikings also need to consider some of the other unchecked items on their to-do list. Danielle Hunter just held out of mandatory minicamp in pursuit of a new contract, and T.J. Hockenson is also looking to cash in as he enters the final year of his contract. And Hunter and Hockenson’s contract negotiations could see insignificant heading into next year when Christian Darrisaw could seek an even bigger deal as he looks to break the left tackle market.
Throw in a lucrative extension for Jefferson and the Vikings could be throwing a lot of money around in the next 12 months.
These calculations also don’t account for Minnesota’s plans at quarterback. If Cousins goes on a Joe Flacco-type of run to the Super Bowl, the Vikings would probably pay him heading into next season. And if Jefferson has a massive number in 2024, could the Vikings afford to keep both Jefferson and Cousins on the roster – especially with the other contracts that are coming due?
If Cousins leaves, the Vikings could use the rookie quarterback window. However, that leads the issue of finding the right quarterback, something Minnesota hasn’t done in the draft since taking Daunte Culpepper in 1999.
As you can see, Jefferson’s extension is more than just handing him a blank check. But there’s a good chance that something will get done before training camp. If the Vikings wait on Jefferson, they’ll just have to pay him more money, which could further complicate things down the road.
That means this celebration – even a watered-down version – should be coming soon as the Vikings and Jefferson will find a way to get a deal done.
