Some people may know Eddie Murphy as Axel Foley from Beverley Hills Cop or Reggie Hammond in 48 Hrs. Others just loved Raw. A younger generation probably thinks of him as Donkey in Shrek. But real ones will remember him as Billy Ray Valentine in Trading Places. In that film, two wealthy brothers bring Valentine into their commodities brokerage firm to see if someone off the street could succeed in their business. Randolph and Mortimer Duke seek to know if success is more a product of nature or nurture. Can Valentine, a stranger with no background in commodities, succeed at their firm?
Valentine does. In one scene, Valentine advises the brothers to wait out pork belly prices until they hit a specific price point. His logic? The prices have been dropping all morning, everyone’s waiting for them to hit rock bottom, and the people who own pork belly contracts are going crazy. They want to sell because they’re losing money, and Christmas is approaching. The brothers watch the pork belly prices drop and buy the dip, satisfied with their investment.
Using common sense, Valentine thrives at the firm. In a unique reverse, Kwesi Adofo-Mensah uses Wall Street principles to build the Minnesota Vikings roster as a first-time general manager. He knows that teams shouldn’t trade up except to get a quarterback and that he’ll need more than five picks to build out his defense. Last year, he shrugged when people freaked out over his decision to trade down with the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers on draft night. Why would he trade within the NFC North? Won’t Jameson Williams and Christian Watson come back to haunt the Vikings?
Adofo-Mensah acknowledged that it’s unconventional to trade within the division. But he acted out of principle. Four of Minnesota’s first five picks were defensive players. Ed Ingram was the other, a guard to fill a longstanding hole on the offensive line. At first, people were disappointed with the draft. Lewis Cine got hurt in the London game, Andrew Booth had a lingering injury, and the Vikings needed corners. But Brian Asamoah broke the sound barrier when he tackled players on the boundaries, and Akayleb Evans charmed everyone by being the only friendly person on Twitter. By the end of the year, some fans were coming around on the draft haul.
Trading for T.J. Hockenson was another calculated risk. The Vikings needed a WR2 to spell Justin Jefferson, and many great offenses have a dynamic pass-catching tight end. Adofo-Mensah landed a star in Hockenson, but he also traded a second-round pick this year and a third-rounder next year as part of the package for him. Detroit is a team on the rise that may choose a dynamic player with the pick Minnesota packaged them. It’s part of the risk profile, and Adofo-Mensah accounted for that. He needed a tight end and received a fourth-round pick this year and a conditional pick next year to accommodate the lost draft capital.
There is a stereotypical New York Stock Exchange scene in Trading Places, where traders barter frantically on the exchange floor. It’s the anxious and exciting experience that people often associate with Wall Street. But the interaction in Randolph and Mortimer’s office is more fitting. Many of us are like the Dukes, wondering why Adofo-Mensah would trade within the division. Like Valentine, Adofo-Mensah patiently explains that trading down for value is a good thing. It’s counterintuitive at first. Why let the divisional opponents load up on talent? It’s also not incredibly exciting. But it’s a prudent way to build a talented roster through the draft.
There’s a way that the draft could be exciting. Minnesota’s front office may decide this is the year to pick Kirk Cousins’ successor. They chose not to extend Cousins, 34, opting to push a lot of his salary into the future. If that’s the case, Adofo-Mensah will have to move his limited draft capital from this year to take a quarterback. Like the Dukes, he’ll conduct his own nature vs. nurture experiment. Can the Vikings, one of the better-run organizations in the NFL, bring out the best in Anthony Richardson or Will Levis?
But if Adofo-Mensah doesn’t believe the Vikings can maximize Richardson’s athleticism or Levis’ arm talent, he’d be wise to trade down and load up on defense. Minnesota got a steal when they hired Brian Flores as their defensive coordinator. However, Flores is a former head coach who passed on a second interview with the Arizona Cardinals to work for the Vikings. He may not be around for long, so Minnesota should get him as much young talent as possible. In one circumstance, Flores coaches them up and lays a foundation for his successor after he leaves. In the best-case scenario, he’s enticed to stay because he believes he’ll be coaching one of the best defenses in the NFL.
No matter what happens, the Vikings will be engaged in their test of nature vs. nurture. Other, worse teams can land more talented players because they are drafting higher. But Minnesota can maximize the players they have because of the culture they are developing. They’ll lean on nurture and analytics to build off last year’s 13-win team. At first, that may feel like an unresolvable conflict. But the best organizations know how to use odds and common sense to put the best team they can on the field every year. And if they do, everyone will feel satisfied come Christmastime.
